MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 4:57 pm
Here is something I think that can be released from the BYD visit as I see some rumors of it in public media. A prototype of the 25K Tesla is complete with LFP batteries. built in Shanghai plant and exported from there. Concern about cross competing with Model3. Currently best selling EV in the world.
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 6:23 pm
Musk’s mission has always included ever less expensive cars and the 3 took market from the S. But the 3 opened up the whole market far more.
Will the 25K Tesla be the most formidable competition for Aptera?
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 6:39 pm
The model 3 is already reasonable priced for what it is. If the new model is substancially smaller or shorter range it won’t steal the market from the other models. $17.5k after credit will sell like hot cakes.
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 8:23 pm
“Can be released”? Do you have a NDA with TESLA? What does your statement & revelation mean? Have you actually seen the hatchback you’re reporting?
BYD “may” supply their Blade batteries; as reported in Chinese media BUT is as of yet unconfirmed, as best as I can tell.
Fill us in if you have something first-hand to offer. Seriously interested.
Maybe I’m missing something or is it worded a certain way on purpose & for “effect”.
Clarification requested OR are you repeating something you read or heard somewhere with “projection” as an insider?
What is the definition of *Hearsay?
That said, I have no doubt they have a 25G prototype ready to go. I’ve read some of those same reports (as have others).
*Hearsay (n) defined :
1. Unverified information heard or received from another; rumor.
2. Evidence that is not within the personal knowledge of a witness, such as testimony regarding statements made by someone other than the witness, and that therefore may be inadmissible to establish the truth of a particular contention because the accuracy of the evidence cannot be verified through cross-examination.
3. Information communicated by another; report; common talk; rumor; gossip.
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 9:36 pm
The information came from presentations made by BYD during the visit at their facility in Shenzhen. I attended as a representative of my employer. Representatives from other EV manufactures were there as well. The NDA was between my employer and BYD.
The contents of the presentations can be “Released” if open sources have the same information.
The prototype exists. Battery negotiations are ongoing.
You may do or think as you wish about the information
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 9:19 am
update on this. looks like some more of the information is in the public domain at this URL
To answer Ronster’s question four door. see a rendering in the video and maybe a prototype being manufactured?? Will use “Tesla” LFP batteries. Depending on negotiation perhaps BYD branded as Tesla to get production underway. Model2 or what it will be called when produced was to have full self driving but as has been in the news the Beta version has issues and gov is investigating.
Also some of the other competitors for Tesla and perhaps Aptera based on pricing with incentives for four wheel 4/5 passenger family oriented EVs.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 9:50 am
Nothing new here. That video is two months old (far from being an update) & also contradicts the BYD LFP. Says using Tesla’s own/new 4680 batteries in this outdated video. It also doesn’t confirm 2 or 4 door either. I “suspect” it will be two door.
Toyota also “just announced” a partnership with chinese battery company BYD to build a $30,000 electric car together.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 2:40 pm
The update was to my earlier post not a general update.
I am sure you are right about all else
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 9:38 pm
MemberNovember 28, 2021 at 11:05 pm
Thanks John. Really interesting to see what happens long term. I suspect they will be heavily supply constrained from either tesla (cars) or byd (batteries) despite massive demand. Byd has their own cars and other contracts. Sales will be shocking. A smaller tesla will sell like hotcakes in China, North America, and Europe (which makes no sense to me as someone familiar with managing resteraunts). If they don’t balance wait times well in all 3 consumers will be frustraded.
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 1:08 am
A smaller, well priced Tesla hatchback (& with ~400mi. range) would sell HUGE; a NO Brainer, IMHO.
Option for two or four seats – even with rear seats folding down as not everyone will ever use (or be able to) the back seats in a smaller car. Save the cost for those so inclined.
John, two or four door? Range?
That said, Aptera is still the answer; choose your budget, range & configuration. I’M SOLD!
ModeratorNovember 29, 2021 at 5:37 am
If this model comes out in 2023 I think it will steal customers from Aptera. It comes from a known manufacturer with a dealer network and charging network, at similar price as Aptera, accommodations for 3 passengers and a driver. Still sold on Aptera personally, but I see this upcoming Telsa as competition to be reckoned with.
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 8:05 am
Aptera has to sell based on it’s uniqueness not it’s price. Cheap products have low margins, the only way to make money is to sell them in very high volumes and a three wheel vehicle will never be high volume. There will be lots of good $25K EVs, not just from Tesla but also from the Koreans and eventually the Chinese, going head to head with them would be suicide.
Aptera has one long term asset, it’s appearance nobody is going to copy that, and one short term advantage it’s long range at an affordable price. The range advantage will go away in a few years as batteries get cheaper. Eventually all EVs will settle in at the same range as a gas car, 400-500 miles, but they can survive if they can build a niche as an extremely cool and fun two seater.
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 10:52 am
Aptera has a few advantages over a low cost tesla “model Q” or chinese car
– Solar (for convenience)
– Faster Acceleration
– Less Energy Use
– Storage Space
– Unique Look (EV sports car)
– Right to repair
– Options for massively better range
– Better in winter (options for AWD / waste heat in wheel wells should prevent snow buildup)
– 2 passengers (vs 4-5 – small back seats)
– Support network not yet built out
– Roof storage not possible
– Slower Charging (even with the efficiency advantage)
– NCA batteries are more touchy about usage patterns vs LFP in Tesla / Chinese
– Unknowns about Tesla charge network cost / plug for Aptera
– Tesla: FSD potential
– Tesla: Software gadgets (sentry mode, games, netflix, fart sounds)
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 4:01 pm
Clean Technica (a contributor’s article):
Tesla Model A – The Tesla Mini Car We Want To See.
Essentially Elon confirmed the product back in 2018. It should be of no surprise at least one prototype (or more) likely exists. Chinese media has also indicated as much already & most recently.
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 9:18 pm
kind of like gordon murray i motiv. virtual traincar concept with 2 two seaters instead of one 4 seater/two 4 seaters per family/wackohouse for 2 parents to goto 2 different work places at same time given rising cost of living causes that. one car follows the other with driver in it allowing 1 driver 4 passengers if wanted, with software much simpler than current self driving software. maybe a design prioritized for low speed (less weight at cost of less areodynamic) but a removable areo moudle if high speed use is common, balance for best effiency emissions outcome… i dont think lot of people especially in dense population future will be driving fast with everything more nearby and delivery services etc
i guess gordon murray car assumes itll be used as pay to drive publicly owned car or for non highway needs ina probable future where more people are in dense city population with increasingly centralized and robotic delivery services on the rise, b/c i dont see anyone wanting a single seater that seems to probably not be sporty at all.
MemberNovember 29, 2021 at 9:27 pm
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 10:00 am
I agree with those who say the low cost Tesla is a threat to Aptera, however, it will be just another “bubble or box”. See NYT editorial: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/opinion/smart-car-technology.html?searchResultPosition=2
Aptera is not a bubble or box.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 1:14 pm
Some now announced news about Toyota using BYD blade LFP batteries in its first EV from four “Anonymous” Sources. Also information in Ronster’s post.
Curtis has been touting LFPs. This is his vindication with Toyota moving that direction. Good for the Chinese and European markets with more urban and lower miles driven motoring environments.
Toyota also thinking about BYD’s engineering approach which they thought cut corners before. Toyota is the poster child for quality engineering. May be capitulating to the lower cost abbreviated cycle BYD uses ????
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 2:09 pm
I actually don’t consider Toyota’s technical choices to be vindication at all ; the vast majority of the chinese EV market and new Tesla’s using LFP is.
Toyota has been very vocal against EVs, has lobbied to delay and spread misinformation. They don’t truly want to make EVs and have already said it “will be expensive”. This isn’t what you say if you truly want to make the a good product for your customers. From the article:
Toyota executives say they’re not against battery electric vehicles (BEVs) but argue that until renewable energy becomes more widely available, they won’t be a silver bullet for slashing carbon emissions.
This pamphlet about green vehicles describes three options: FCEV (hydrogen based fuel cells), HEV (Hybrid energy vehicles), and PHEV. Lumping non-plugin hybrids into the discussion and completely ignoring pure EVs is blatant byass and this is distributed to young children in Japanese schools.
PS: I drive a Toyota (Pontiac Vibe still counts). They make quality cars but have very little interest in electrifying.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 2:34 pm
Fair enough on your statement about vindication.
I think it vindicates you as a decidedly anti EV company now sees that as perhaps the only option to get back in the game is going with LFPs from BYD.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 8:10 pm
It’s exactly part of Toyota’s “about turn” & attempt at playing the game of catch up. I wouldn’t count them out BUT there certainly was a surprising “misfire”, miscalculation & distracted focus.
MemberDecember 4, 2021 at 7:06 pm
Further Toyota related clarifications in video, for anyone so interested to view.
MemberDecember 3, 2021 at 5:49 pm
Some interesting stats:
Average new car price in the USA: $45K
There are 17 models on sale for between $15K and $20K
There are 51 models on sale for between $20K and $30K
There are 81 models on sale for between $30K and $40K
That’s 149 new cars available for less than the average new car price.
On the other hand…
There are 108 models available for between $40K and $50K
There are 104 models available for between $50K and $70K
There are 97 models available for over $70K (with at least 20 over $100K)
That’s 309 new cars available for more than the overage new car price.
Makes one wonder about all the fuss over a sub-$30K EV…
MemberDecember 6, 2021 at 5:42 am
Tesla will not release a “Model 2”, or whatever they decide to call it, for at least another 3-5 years.
I know their mission is to accelerate to sustainable energy, but their goal is to accelerate production right now and that is with the model Y and 3 in two new Giga Factories (Berlin and Austin).
In 5 years Tesla will have completely ramped out manufactoring of it’s own battery cells (4680) in all of their factories allowing for production of the low cost alternative.
Adding another vehicle to a lineup that already isn’t producing the much hyped Cyber Truck and the Tesla Semi (Both of which were supposed to be in production FY 2021) would steal battery resources from 3 and Y in their ramp up in the new factories.
MemberDecember 6, 2021 at 6:38 am
Richard, respectfully disagree.
I believe your forecast may be accurate for the US market. However the manufacture of the Model xx is will start in the Shanghai factory and will be for the hot Chinese market and next, export from China to Europe. A prototype is complete and manufacturing line modifications underway.
There is no way Tesla will forego entry of this vehicle into the Chinese market for 2 to 5 years. LFP batteries can be sourced from BYD for these vehIcles not necessarily from Tesla sourcing.
MemberDecember 6, 2021 at 7:02 am
They are already sourcing LFP batteries from CATL, do you know if or when they will start sourcing them from BYD? I don’t doubt that they will, Tesla wants to buy every battery that they can get their hands on.
I agree with you that they will no doubt introduce a smaller car in Asia and the EU in the near future, that form factor dominates in those markets and Tesla can’t afford not to have something in that size. Don’t know if it will be cheap or not, they are a premium brand and it might be a mistake to cheapen it, but that’s for them to decide. But they do need a car that’s easier to park in Asian and European cities.
As for whether they bring it to the US, most automakers wouldn’t, think ID3 for example, but Tesla might be able to pull it off. The Model 3 is a mid sized sedan and it’s sold like hotcakes in the US where supposedly the sedan market is dead, aside from muscle cars the Detroit companies hardly sell any sedans anymore. So I wouldn’t rule out a smaller Tesla at some point.
MemberDecember 6, 2021 at 9:15 am
I learned about the Tesla sourcing from BYD during my visit to BYD. They were negotiating but negotiation not complete by the time I left. Target Was 2nd half of 2022. Of course like any negotiation, it might have fallen through, but both side were pretty serious about it.
I agree with all of the assessments in your post. China is the big market right now and Tesla needs to have something to compete in that form factor. Being Tesla I am sure they will price to get every penny of profit out of it. Same everywhere they try to sell it.
I believe you and I have Model3’s. Certainly a testament to Tesla’s desirability selling to successfully in the sedan market which is on life support. This is in spite of quality issues. However, I am happy with my Model3, no complaints.
I will just be happier with my Aptera!