Aptera may be getting more than it can chew?

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Aptera may be getting more than it can chew?

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Aptera may be getting more than it can chew?

  • Aptera may be getting more than it can chew?

     Alain Chuzel updated 1 week, 1 day ago 16 Members · 25 Posts
  • Angel Ramirez

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 8:53 am

    As per my rudimentary estimates, Aptera is receiving reservations at a rate that would eventually require a change in production capacity plans. I estimate Aptera is receiving about 5,000 to 6,000 new reservations a month (I guess is because of the fuel crisis). That is 85,000 to 97,000 a year, if current trend continues. The current production plan is to build 40 units a day or about 10,400 units a year. To put this in prospective Tesla makes over 1,600 units a day. Given the current fuel price crisis continues and the reservation rate holds, Aptera will be 6 to 7 years from reservation to delivery. Tesla would take 2 months.

  • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:04 am

    Aptera is designed around mini factories that would be set up in different geographic areas, as demand dictates, to facilitate low footprint deliveries. Each mini factory would have the same output as the first, and are meant to be low cost and fairly quick to build and operate.

  • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:08 am

    Also I think your order rate estimate appears too high, the average at this point is about 1,400 a month, with a recent surge likely coming from a highly watched YouTube video. I would however expect a ramp up of reservations as more media hits the airwaves (The Intertubes?) and especially when production Apterae are out on the streets.

  • Jonah Jorgenson

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:24 am

    And your point?

    Seems like a good position for a business to be in! So many orders for a great product. Glad I saw the opportunity early.

  • Marco Landin

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:39 am

    I agree with the assessment that your estimate for current Aptera reservations might be a bit high. And as has been said, the production strategy they’ve adopted will mean that build speeds can 2X, 3X 4X etc as demand increases, which will certainly be the case once the first few hundred Apterae hit the streets (I’m putting a QR code on mine that will take people to a reservation page with my member code so I can get a second one haha). I’m #12303 so I realistically won’t even see my own baby penguin (sol model) come to me until 2024. Sadface. Unless they 2X their production lines early enough in 2023, then I might have a chance at a vehicle that same year.
    I’m guessing they will try to strategize production so that nobody has to wait more than a coule of years for their wingless bird.

  • Alain Chuzel

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:55 am

    “fuel crisis”(?)

    “current fuel price crisis”(?)

    In mid-2020 I paid over $80 for a 4 foot by 8 foot piece of 5/8 inch thick plywood. Would that have been a “plywood crises”?

    • kerbe2705

      Member
      June 23, 2022 at 10:13 pm

      @Alain Chuzel – how well I recall the Great Plywood Crisis of Mid-2020! We had to sell my grandmother for medical research just to afford a sheet of OSB! 🤣

  • BigSky Country

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 9:59 am

    I do not see an issue here. It is a great problem to have. My projected delivery date goes into 2024 and that might be optimistic. The company must be focused on getting that first car out because it gets much easier after that. Their strategy has been a low capital intensive approach for quick scale up which reduces funding risk. Once they have an approved, street legal vehicle on the market, there are a lot of proven ways to expand this type of manufacturing approach quickly. When you are staring at a large backlog, it becomes a low risk to fund new sites. I would be much more concerned about supply chain constraints right now.

  • Angel Ramirez

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 12:12 pm

    My point is, I would like to see discussion on how Aptera will or may handle this enormous rate of reservations.

    What is the target wait period? How many factories may be needed to achieve the target? If each factory makes 40UPD then 3 to 7 may be needed?

    • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

      Member
      June 23, 2022 at 2:47 pm

      That’s just it, depending on demand they will expand with more micro factories rather than over build a single location.

    • BigSky Country

      Member
      June 23, 2022 at 6:27 pm

      I actually think they have addressed this to the best of their ability. First off, do you have any idea what the closure rate of all these reservations when it comes time to come up with $40,000 to close your $100 reservation? There will be a decent percentage of people that won’t go through with their reservations. Secondly, Chris mentioned recently that they are working on their future expansion plans to include up to 6 facilities. While this planning is necessary, I cannot stress enough how important it is to get that first vehicle to the finish line. This is where the real risk is. Too much discussion and focus on expansion doesn’t make sense from a PR standpoint until a legit street legal vehicle gets sold and is spotted on the road. There is a learning curve here and they are learning fast, but the sequence is crawl (first vehicle), walk (optimize your manufacuring process at first plant), run (build new plants).

      • kerbe2705

        Member
        June 23, 2022 at 10:15 pm

        @BigSky Country – BRAVO! You are today’s “Voice of Reason”!

      • Ray Holan

        Moderator
        June 24, 2022 at 5:34 am

        Nicely put, BigSky. “There is a learning curve here and they are learning fast, but the sequence is crawl (first vehicle), walk (optimize your manufacuring process at first plant), run (build new plants).”

  • Richard Palmisano

    Member
    June 23, 2022 at 12:37 pm

    Angel, I assume that there will be 70% take rate…meaning of the 25k reservations, refundable, about 17.5k will actually buy. At 40 UPD that’s aprox 15K UPY…kinda close.

    That said, having that much demand is a hell of a thing ain’t it?

    • kerbe2705

      Member
      June 23, 2022 at 10:17 pm

      @Palmisano – So true – of all the problems to have, this is not one over which to lose sleep!

  • Steven G. Bueche

    Member
    June 24, 2022 at 1:07 am

    Although I see the point of this thread I do have a bit of a different view.

    I am willing to wait the two year timeframe as Aptera is a start up company and things take time. but would I put an order in for a Tesla if the wait was two years? No, no I wouldn’t. There are other choices out there that would let me save on gas for a few bucks more or less.

    Aptera will take time to ramp up production after the first 1000 ginning pigs real world test their invention. Once the kinks are worked out and improvements are made, then they’ll be off and running. It’s only then that they’ll decide on the proper point of action if at least preplan accordingly.

    But, let’s not forget that when the next election happens and the gas prices come down, the demand will weaken and reservations will be more based on whim than cool and efficiency.

    • Alain Chuzel

      Member
      June 24, 2022 at 8:47 am

      You said: “let’s not forget that when the next election happens and the gas prices come down”

      Exactly how are the two (election and gas prices) linked in your mind?

      Oh. Remember. No politics.

      (I’m saddened at how some are so consumed with their political tribalism that they, possibly unwittingly, have to somehow “work it into” virtually everything.)

      • Michael Kahlow

        Member
        June 24, 2022 at 4:23 pm

        The next Russian election. 😉

      • Steven G. Bueche

        Member
        June 25, 2022 at 6:29 am

        I’m sorry but I wasn’t trying to bring that into this as none of my other post have so far.

        And what were the gas prices two years ago? Just around $2 a gallon. That’s also when all the big three were pushing those gas guzzling tanks. Remember what happen to the gas prices when they were pushing the Hummer? it’s a pattern.

        • Alain Chuzel

          Member
          June 25, 2022 at 6:52 am

          Sorry but you linked the NEXT ELECTION to gas prices coming down.

  • Christopher Barrett

    Member
    June 24, 2022 at 8:17 am

    Well, it probably has a tie to the price of gasoline. As a matter of fact, stand by in any gasoline station anywhere in the USA, and tell people your next car won’t need fossil fuel, and they assume your purchase is a Tesla. But, of you said no, and show them the Aptera, my guess is reservations would grow much faster, until prices the pump decline by at least 35%.

    Frankly, it’s not a problem. The management team has spoken of micro factory’s and spreading production to other geographic locals. My biggest concern is cash flow, to get it up, and producing the first 20,000 or so. Once on the road, proven to be real, then the order book will be like VW beetle in 1960/1970 they should be everywhere!

    I’m a shareholder, thinking about standing at truck stops, educating the public! This company has winner written all over it.

    • BRUCE MENGLER

      Member
      June 24, 2022 at 5:55 pm

      I like your idea about parking at a BUSY gas station with a banner that says “POWERED BY THE SUN!” with my Aptera parked below it.

      I could park at the COSTCO gas station on Palomar Airport Rd about 5 miles from the Aptera assembly building!

  • my_discord_number_is_0328 bloody stupid

    Member
    June 24, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    my email is jhondeere8@yahoo dot com, send me invite link to the apteras owners club discord forum

  • Pistonboy Delux

    Member
    June 24, 2022 at 7:42 pm

    Oh! What I am hearing in the thread reminds me of what I heard in the forum for the Elio May it rest in peace.

  • Jeanne V

    Member
    June 24, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    As an Aptera investor, I see only positive take-aways from this thread. Oh what a problem it will be to _have to_ ramp up production fast enough to meet ever increasing reservations. After only 18 months since this recent batch started, there are discussions here of high 5-figure reservations by years’ end. This is in contrast to another 3-wheeled EV manufacturer up north, which after 10+ years is struggling to get beyond low 4-figure of reservations (as that other mfg. has not been quite as transparent with their reservation nos. as of late)! One EV shows meaningful demand, the other does not. This is the type of problem a mfg wishes to have.

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