Aptera Delivery schedule (2)Posted by john-young on March 16, 2023 at 5:52 pm
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I have a Paradigm Launch Edition and up until today it said ‘Late 2023’ which I knew was mostly likely not going to happen and that’s just fine. It now says ‘2024’. Not early/summer/late/anything, just ‘2024’. This time though, I think it’s true!
- 33 Replies
- MemberMarch 16, 2023 at 6:18 pm
Yeah, I saw that change, too. 2024, like January or December. Or 2025…..
- MemberSeptember 1, 2023 at 10:37 am
Not really a glass half-full type, but maybe by the time these deliver we won’t have to carry credit card type interest on the note. I realize to some money isn’t an object…
I’m not a member of that club.
- MemberMarch 16, 2023 at 6:26 pm
I had the 600 mile battery reserved and it also said 2024. I changed it to the Launch edition and will see how many mile range is verified with the 400 mile battery and then decide to keep the Launch edition or change back to the 600 mile battery.
- MemberMarch 25, 2023 at 12:29 pm
I didn’t notice the delivery change, until a few minutes ago 🙄. My non-LE Noir/400/FS (and just last night, I re-added the “SP” as openpilot) is now slated for 2024 (SoCal).
- MemberJune 20, 2023 at 11:05 am
Aptera Motors, Inc, was founded in 2005.
Just one question, has even one (1) vehicle been delivered to a customer in close to eighteen (18) years. I am on the list but not holding my breath.
- ModeratorJune 20, 2023 at 12:46 pm
No, but to clarify, the current Aptera Motors was founded in 2019.
- MemberJuly 12, 2023 at 8:19 am
I’m in line for the Launch Edition. I’m curious what others expect for their delivery times. I’m not a Accelerator, and don’t believe there’s any chance of getting a 2024 Aptera. If they don’t get the ATVM Government Loan, the chance of 2025 delivery falls to 5%. If they get the loan, then about a 30% chance in 2025.
- ModeratorJuly 12, 2023 at 8:41 am
Guessing about delivery schedules has been going on for at least three years – until production starts and some production ramp is evident, any guess would do.
- MemberJuly 19, 2023 at 7:08 pm
As an Accelerator that resides 26 miles from Aptera, I expect to beta test my signature vehicle by this time next year.
Sandy Munro was asked a couple of months ago during Electrify Expo when we will see Apterae on the street, his immediate reply was “September”, no hesitation, full stop.
Watch and see if Aptera reveals Delta at Fully Charged Live in San Diego this October. They revealed Gamma at this event last year and was the star of the show.
Accelerator Program is sure to sell out, if it already hasn’t by then.
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by Glenn Langit.
- ModeratorJuly 20, 2023 at 10:15 am
In Aptera’s SEC filing today, there’s this:
Our estimated first deliveries on these pre-orders is Q2 of 2024 and by 2025 we anticipate producing 7,000 cars a year, and by 2026, we anticipate producing 20,000 cars a year, and therefore we anticipate that we should be able to fulfill the preorders in 2027.
- MemberAugust 5, 2023 at 10:47 am
CA mentioned in an interview at the Tesla event that they hope to be turning over the keys to the first delivery in maybe mid-2024.
Say that CA is correct and they start deliveries then, how long might it be for the 2000 Accelerator vehicles to be delivered? I’m guessing they’ll start slow at maybe about 10 per day and slowly ramp up so those should be delivered by the end of 2024 at the latest.
OK, next deliveries would probably be the Paradigm vehicles. I don’t remember how many of those were promised but the number 1500 sticks in my brain. Hopefully by January 2025, they’ll have production up enough so those orders could be delivered by the end of March 2025.
Next will be those who, like myself ordered, the Launch Edition but were not in the previous two groups. Would it be realistic to expect deliveries by the end of 2025? CA said they had over 44,000 pre-orders so I’m curious where I with #12172 stand.
- ModeratorAugust 5, 2023 at 11:04 am
There were 220 Paradigm orders which would come after the Accelerator slots. Ambassadors were also promised early delivery slots. When anyone’s order may come depend on a lot of factors, including configuration and location (non-LE and outside of So CA would be later). Until production starts and some volume ramp is evident, any guess at delivery timing is as good as any.
- MemberAugust 5, 2023 at 3:02 pm
<div>“…so I’m curious where I with #12172 stand.”
Since ‘any guess will do’…my estimate is yours could be ready by 25Q2. Q3 if the conversion rate is high.
- MemberAugust 5, 2023 at 11:18 am
> … CA mentioned in an interview at the Tesla event that they hope to be turning over the keys to the first delivery in maybe mid-2024. …
That might still be dependent on production funding. I think things are still very speculative as regards delivery timings.
The 20th July SEC filings said this (which would be their best-case scenario regarding funding, no production hiccups, etc):
> The company continues to establish supplier relationships, refine design to improve efficiency and acquire production tooling and equipment.
> The company is currently accepting deposits for pre-orders of $100. These deposits are fully refundable. Our estimated first deliveries on these pre-orders is Q2 of 2024. To date, our cancellation rate on these preorders is under 5%. As of July 14, 2023, we have 43,000 preorders.
> Our estimated first deliveries on these pre-orders is Q2 of 2024 and by 2025 we anticipate producing 7,000 cars a year, and by 2026, we anticipate producing 20,000 cars a year, and therefore we anticipate that we should be able to fulfill the preorders in 2027. Our ability to achieve the figures above are conditioned on raising a significant amount of capital, closing a significant number of our preorders, availability of materials and goods necessary to produce the vehicles, availability of manufacturing facilities, and uninterrupted supply chains.
Assuming 1,000 in 2024, and then lets assume 7,000 in 2025, 20,000 in 2026 will happen as they hope.
More assumptions – lets say 2,000 accelerator orders, 45,000 pre-orders by the end of the next couple of months once the non-accredited investors are allowed back in
Additional assumptions – lets say 80% of accelerator investors proceed to a full vehicle purchase, and 30% of normal pre-orders do the same. Lets also assume that 90% of accelerator investors are in the USA or Canada, and 75% of normal pre-order customers.
So that gives 1,440 full orders for accelerator vehicles in the USA/Canada, and just over 10k initial full orders in the USA/Canada. Of those 10k, some will be LE, and some will be other configurations. Lets say 50% are LE (so 5K).
So a small handful of vehicles in Q3 2024, Q4 2024 will cover the majority of accelerator vehicles, with the remainder in Jan/Feb of 2025. USA people with LE pre-orders should get them during the remainder of 2025. The first non-LE configurations should start appearing Q4 2025, with the remainder in 2026. 2026 will probably also mark the first pre-order deliveries into other territories, and by then there should be a lot of non-pre-ordered orders too (once people start to see them around).
Above is complete speculation, and assuming everything goes perfectly (which never happens in real life).
- ModeratorAugust 6, 2023 at 4:20 pm
Mike, excellent analysis. However, (all replies imply a “however”), Aptera MIGHT be able to ramp faster, as long as key suppliers themselves can ramp faster. CPC and Elaphe both have major expansions announced on their websites. For “normal” automotive parts, Aptera orders may be bucket drops, and any faster order ramp should be relatively easy. In the end, it will depend on quality and completeness of design, of design validation, of procurement, of manufacture, of final testing and validation, and of all the myriad other steps required.
- MemberAugust 8, 2023 at 12:25 pm
In this video: Aptera – The Tesla of Solar Cars of the Future!! CA at 6:13 states he expects to build several hundred in 2024, possibly getting up to a thousand and then in 2025 building up to 12, 000.
So, it looks like delivery will be slower than expected.
- MemberSeptember 2, 2023 at 3:23 am
That’s faster than what they said in the SEC filings I quoted above. SEC filings said 7000 in 2025 (contingent upon funding etc, which everyone seems to be missing).
- MemberSeptember 2, 2023 at 8:48 am
I’ve considered that a more prudent estimate which could be considered for an SEC filing…and a more optimistic side presented to EV fans at say Tesla Takeover.
My opinion is that a slow ramp up rate would be easier and faster to achieve in a low funding scenario and conversely a high ramp up rate might take a bit longer to start in a higher funding scenario, because the level of testing, staffing, etc could be higher.
- MemberSeptember 1, 2023 at 11:33 am
Do we know how many pre-orders are for the Launch Edition (LE)? Can we assume that the majority of Accelerator orders are for the LE?
- MemberSeptember 1, 2023 at 2:12 pm
Since that is the only model that will fulfill the Accelerator list, that is a safe assumption.
- MemberAugust 5, 2023 at 11:23 am
Mike, where do the Paradigm pre-orders fit, or were they done away with?
- ModeratorAugust 5, 2023 at 12:40 pm
Paradigm orders are still there, right after the Accelerators. Like all orders, they are subject to configuration and location limits when it comes to their order (if a Paradigm customer is not willing to take a gray LE or go to the factory to pick it up, they’ll be waiting while).
- MemberAugust 5, 2023 at 2:49 pm
So I think in order of delivery timing:
* Paradigm + Accelerator + LE = delivery order will be controlled by position in accelerator leaderboard, without regard to paradigm status
* Paradigm + LE = front of the limited edition pre-order queue (by territory)
* Paradigm + Accelerator + non-LE = at the front of the non-LE pre-order queue (by territory)
* Paradigm + non-LE = immediately after the paradigm + accelerator non LE (by territory)
- MemberSeptember 8, 2023 at 6:17 pm
Not the best track record of predicting production readiness:
July 2020 Summer 2021 ~ 1 year 314 in 2021
December 2020 EOY 2021 ~ 1 year —
January 2021 2022 ~ 1 year 4,000 – 6,000 in 2022 if COVID didn’t continue
January 2022 late 2022 < 1 year Ramping to 250 per month then to 40 per day in 2023
June 2022 end of 2022 6 months Ramping to full-scale production in 2023
September 2022 early 2023 4 months Ramping to 10,000 units per year rate (40 per day) in 2023
January 2023 2024 > 1 year “12 months after funding is secured”
June 2023 2024 > 1 year “We are targeting to begin our earliest deliveries in 2024 and ramp production in 2025.”
At this point, it is hard to give any proposed timeline credibility, especially when there are still many caveats (money being the biggest one).
Lightyear got all the way to production before scrapping everything and starting over.
That said, I’ve bought a hundred shares that I can afford to lose and a reservation that I can wait a year or two for, but like a few of my other investments in this space, I’m hopeful but not holding my breath.
- MemberSeptember 20, 2023 at 2:07 pm
I like what I see but I am not interested in buying a car and receiving it “someday”(TM).
I saw on reviews that production is supposed to begin in 2024. What is the anticipated production speed, and how much backlog is there?
In other words, if I were to place an order the day they start delivering cars, how long would it likely take to receive mine? At that point, I could happily wait for a month… but if it was 1-2 years I would definitely look at a different car. This would be my main car, not just a “toy”. Should I forget about buying an Aptera just because of likely slow production volumes?
- ModeratorSeptember 20, 2023 at 4:13 pm
It will likely be at least 2026 before the time between an order and delivery gets below 1-2 months.
- ModeratorSeptember 20, 2023 at 5:25 pm
- MemberSeptember 20, 2023 at 6:35 pm
“At that point, I could happily wait for a month… but if it was 1-2 years I would definitely look at a different car”.
If this car truly fits your needs…you also mentioned it will be your main car. I would wait until they are available to you. There really isn’t another vehicle that is close to in specs.
- MemberSeptember 21, 2023 at 6:45 am
If my situation was different I would definitely wait for the car. I would probably even join the investor program.
But my main issue is that I don’t know exactly when I will need to buy “a” car, although I know it will be sometime in the next 6 months. But once I know the date… I will need to buy it within at most a couple weeks of that date as I’d be renting a car starting from that date and that gets prohibitive fast.
Taking that into consideration plus the fact that the very few other EVs in my target price range are all out of stock, it leaves me looking at the lowest priced but reliable and reasonable miles per gallon ICE that I am likely to be able to drive off the lot… the Nissan Versa. And once I have it, it will be easily a 10 year committment. I hate the idea of buying an ICE car at this time in history, but I can’t find any alternative. The US car market is just too messed up right now.
- MemberSeptember 21, 2023 at 10:57 am
If your an Accelerator living in SoCal, you could be behind the yoke by this time next year. Otherwise Aptera is looking at a three year backlog.
My work commute is twenty-two miles away, and I have nearly 12,000 miles in twelve months in an Arcimoto FUV. This will fulfill 95% of my driving needs until Aptera arrives.
- MemberSeptember 21, 2023 at 12:25 pm
My thanks to everyone who posted.
It seems obvious to me now that while I will almost certainly “eventually” buy an Aptera, it is not going to be anytime soon. Depending on how things evolve it will either be the car that replaces the one I am about to buy (10 years from now) or be a 2nd car sometime in a few years.
- This reply was modified 2 days ago by BrunoGenovese.