Deloitte Global Study: Does Anyone Want an EV?

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Deloitte Global Study: Does Anyone Want an EV?

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Deloitte Global Study: Does Anyone Want an EV?

  • Deloitte Global Study: Does Anyone Want an EV?

  • Ray Holan

    Moderator
    January 8, 2022 at 9:15 am

    Interesting R&T article citing a recent consumer study:

    https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a38698676/does-anyone-want-an-electric-car/

    Brief quote from the article:

    “Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; that they still want to buy new vehicles in person and not over the internet; and that they’re fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.”

    The cited preference for buying in person rather than over the internet is a potential hurdle for Aptera insofar as there is no traditional dealer network planned.

  • Jon Arryn

    Member
    January 8, 2022 at 9:33 am

    Let’s hope “The Times They Are a-Changin'”. Aptera, Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and more to come, aren’t relying on traditional dealers. It’s just what the masses are used to and have accepted as fact. IMHO, vendor experience locations (looking at you Tesla) and ease of after sales support will be more important than current dealer networks. You don’t have to look any further than some Ford dealers, to see the backlash on profiteering markups on Mustang Mach-E, Broncos and F-150 Lightnings. Hopefully see that sales model is ending for consumers.

    Truth be told, there’s an uphill battle; dealers are well-entrenched. For example, thanks to antiquated dealer-focused laws in Texas, you have to drive to an Indian Reservation to take delivery of a Tesla.

    Remember early on in the auto revolution between cars and horses, customer sentiment was that really, we just wanted a faster horse….

    • John Malcom

      Member
      January 10, 2022 at 1:02 pm

      The big group is all potential targeted buyers in the United States. (Probably Millennials and Gen X) In statistics that would be called a population or Universe. To take a sample from a population, two criteria need to be met to give a valid (Accurate) and reliable (Repeatable with the same findings) result, a correct sample size and the respondents selected randomly. Opinion data is categorized as Nominal Data (Arranged in categories) Nominal data is more difficult to draw valid conclusions from. To get a valid result from categorical data a large sample size is needed. There are formulas for computing the correct sample size. Of course the larger the sample the more accurate the result of the analysis. The second criteria is that the respondents to the question(s) must be assigned randomly perhaps from some list of candidates. Self selection (Volunteering an opinion) will not produce a valid representation of the population/universe as it is skewed to start with predisposition to give a certain response.

      Ray Holan has posted a statistical analysis of EV opinion data by country from a well known consulting firm. If you look at the report, (Not just the post) you will find that the sample size for each country is around 1,000. (1,013 for the US)

      At the time of this writing there were 28 people responding in this thread. Because of the above, in my professional opinion, as sample size of 28 is not close to large enough to represent the opinion of our 15,000+ reservation holders or an even larger population of potential buyers.

      Where do I get my information? From automobile industry research organizations, Government reports, and auto industry press reports. Most of it my employer pays the fees to get the best and most current data.We never conduct an important analysis unless we can get three credible sources to generally agree on a reported result, and we rigorously examine their methodology.

      You can get a similar result by googling “What are the three biggest factors. Electrek is a pretty good common source too.

  • V Pilot

    Member
    January 8, 2022 at 1:09 pm

    It seems like Tesla’s direct sales model works just fine. Having showroom only locations or galleries or kiosks or whatever you want to call them, where one can at least experience the physical product is all most people need. To be able to sit in it and check out the user interface

  • Joshua Rosen

    Member
    January 8, 2022 at 1:51 pm

    For a car you need a store of some sort so that people can test drive it. I did three test drives before I bought I bought my Tesla, the first in MA, a second in California when I happened to be out there and a final one back in MA just so that my girlfriend could try it out. I did the purchase in the Tesla store, they checked local inventory and I was able to get one immediately without a wait. The purchase was online but I did it on their computers.

    The part of the dealer experience that people hate is the horse trading, that might have been acceptable a hundred years ago when haggling was still a part of life but not now. You would never go in to Costco or Best Buy and try and negotiate the price of a TV or a computer, and they would never think of putting on a giant markup on an iPhone but that’s what happens with cars (Ford dealers are asking for an additional $30K for the Lightning).

    Non dedicated stores that do demonstrations and service would be another alternative for manufacturers that don’t have the scale to open their own stores. Appliances and consumer electronics are sold at stores that carry multiple brands, why should cars be any different. I could imagine a motorcycle dealer that might want to add some specialized EVs like the Aptera and the FUV. The sale would still be at a fixed price but you would have a place to take it for service and the delivery would be simpler because they would handle the registration and put the plates on just like a dealer does.

  • Patrick Liebknecht

    Member
    January 8, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    I see a ton of Polaris Slingshots around town, as well as vanderhall 3wheelers

    The interesting part. There isn’t a dedicated dealer for either of them, what they did was. Put their product in an established motorcycle dealer or snowmobile dealer.

    Aptera should parter up with a motorcycle dealer in each state , or even pay us, the new owners, a commission on each one we sell for them,

    I can guarantee you. As soon as mine is in my driveway. Everybody in my area is going to want to know what it is , how it works and how much it costs. As well as the people I work with.

  • George Hughes

    Member
    January 8, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    This survey should provide Aptera investors with a boost in confidence.

    The first thing is the range buyers EXPECT from an electric car. The graph shows how it is literally impossible to build an electric car at the desired broad market price t is one very BIG tell in the data that benefits Aptera. That is the consumer expectation of range of an electric vehicle. In the US it is really high – over 500 miles.

    The other metric that US buyers are interested is price – basically under $50,000. US buyers are also particularly interested in low cost fuel and maintenance which with ‘never charge’ marks that box.

    The FUN FACT is to get that kind of range you either need a massive (and expensive) battery if you want to push around a two-ton steel clad car.

    This means every other from every other manufacturer will fall short of expectations.

    How do I know this?

    Remember Chris talking to Jay Leno saying, and I paraphrase, If you want a car that has the 1000 mile range, it is going to have to look like this. That is to say you can’t do it with steel-bodied vehicles without a jump to a new battery type. The never charge feature is also dependent on the Aptera’s weight and .13 drag coefficient.

  • Ray Holan

    Moderator
    January 9, 2022 at 10:54 am

    An informative set of posts in this thread. Owners as sales reps, studio or kiosks with after sales support, partnering with motorcycle dealers represent innovation.

  • Roshiyu

    Member
    January 9, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    With Aptera’s micro-factory stratagy, they could also act as a dealership/show room in a way? All depends on how it plays out.

  • John Malcom

    Member
    January 9, 2022 at 7:47 pm

    I am a fan of Deloitte. They are thorough and rigorous in their analysis.

    Page 17 contains the only demographic information to be used to assess the analysis. Unfortunately for us, the findings in the report are at such a high level as not to be exceptionally useful for Aptera without two layers down data.

    They have all of the data from very low levels to the high level in the report. But, like most representatives in the Management/Accounting consulting world, would like you to pay for a “Custom look”

    The report shows about 1,000 samples for each question for each country. When you look at page 17 for the US you can see that the sample size for the age group of most interest (Millennials) is only 314 (1013 x31%) hardly large enough to provide a valid and reliable assessment of opinion data which contains large variations in responses.

    This small sample of demographic of interest will also skew the percentages in the reports. Millennials prefer online sales activity for buying vehicles to “Dealer type” experiences. But if you look at the report on how many people like to buy their vehicles in the US, it shows 48%. If you separated out Millennials, that percentage would be much lower and the manufacturer and party boxes would be much higher.

    The last thing not rigorous about the study is that the sample was self selected not random. the respondents were offer an online site to fill out the survey. So the sample is not only small and of the wrong population, but skewed by self selection. The results at the level reported do not provide an accurate representation of the vehicle buying population of most interest.

    So, good bait here but unless they will report detail or allow access to their data (For free – ewww a bad word in their industry) only of general value.

    The team I am working with on my consulting engagement is currently working on competitive analysis. We only seek sources of research data from auto industry specific research sources or not for profit sources, and occasionally government sources.

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