Lithium shortage

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Lithium shortage

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Lithium shortage

  • Lithium shortage

     Lou Verner updated 2 months ago 11 Members · 26 Posts
  • Patrick Liebknecht

    Member
    April 26, 2022 at 12:56 pm

    I’ve been reading articles about how there is a shortage of lithium , which we all know is a key component of the EV battery.

    I haven’t seen any discussion on how this will likely affect the building and delivery timeline of the some 17k preorders.

    The latest article I read was about the Las Vegas auto show and there are thousands of preorders for other EVs like the Ford F-150 EV and how they haven’t even started producing them and are already worried about the lithium shortage.

    It also states that there is an open pit lithium mine slated for the USA , BUT it has run into problems with permits and challenges by the climate “police”

  • Alain Chuzel

    Member
    April 26, 2022 at 1:15 pm

    If only there was a climate “police”. Sadly climate criminals have all but free reign in our less than perfect union.

    • Joshua Rosen

      Member
      April 26, 2022 at 1:42 pm

      The most anti-environment people are environmentalists. Massachusetts has been trying to run an extension cord to Quebec so that we can get carbon free hydro power which they have in abundance, the line has been blocked in Vermont, New Hampshire and most recently in Maine by so called environmentalists. Vermont has stopped building wind turbines, the tops of mountains are great places to put windmills but they’ve been blocked by environmentalists in the hippiest state in the union. Tesla’s plant in Germany was delayed for a year by lawsuits filed by the Greenies. The final example is the Cape Wind project which would have put an offshore wind farm off of Cape Cod, it was killed by Ted Kennedy and John Kerry who didn’t want to look at windmills from their estates in Hyannisport and Nantucket.

      • Alain Chuzel

        Member
        April 26, 2022 at 1:52 pm

        -Argument from anecdote

        -Cherry picking

        -Hasty generalization

        Nice try JR…./s

      • Bob Kirchner

        Member
        April 27, 2022 at 2:37 pm

        I think maybe you’re confusing environmentalists with NIMBYs.

  • BRUCE MENGLER

    Member
    April 26, 2022 at 1:37 pm

    A report from the California Energy Commission said the Salton Sea area alone could generate more than 600,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate – more than the total global demand in 2021. Yet it will take years to know how much lithium is actually present, and which technologies will work best to extract it safely.<div>

    The SKY is NOT falling; regardless of what Chicken Little may be reporting.

    </div>

  • Curtis Cibinel

    Member
    April 26, 2022 at 1:57 pm

    Lithium will be one of the main limiting factors for EV transitions but mines and new methods are being deployed constantly; cobalt and nickel are also important (until we hopefully see a LFP switch). You can also make 7-10 base Aptera’s with the same lithium as one EV pickup. I’ve not seen data on how much the lithium deviates by chemistries but lithium makes up about 7% of the battery. If the base aptera has about 100 kg (220lb) of batteries that is about $660 USD of lithium (7 kg) even at $80,000 USD per ton; not insignificant given it was about $100 a year ago but it doesn’t change the fundamental economic viability of the vehicle.

    https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/

    https://www.mining.com/lithium-prices-pause-in-april-but-not-a-sign-of-wider-market-correction/

    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

  • Patrick Liebknecht

    Member
    April 26, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/lithium-shortages-tesla-ev-tech-markets.amp<div&gt;
    </div><div>https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/lithium-shortage-will-get-worse-prices-will-continue-to-escalate/</div><div&gt;
    </div><div>

    <div>
    </div><div>All signs point toward a supply shortage. More EVe more batteries. Not near enough extraction of lithium.</div><div>
    </div><div>
    </div></div>

    • Francis Giroux

      Member
      April 26, 2022 at 6:42 pm

      Recently I saw an article about desalination plants around the middle East. Some have abandoned returning the brine back to the sea, and have tapped into the valuable resource to reclaim the elements and compounds therein. Besides sodium, one of the most abundant of the elements is Lithium which accounted for about three percent of the brine components (I assume excluding the water). Just like smoke stack scrubbers of high sulfur petroleum fuel burning plants became a major source of gypsum for making sheet-rock, Desalination plants may become a major source of lithium. 3% concentration is better than miners will find in lithium containing clay. Lithium is not rare like cobalt or nickel so if the price is right it will be available.

      • kerbe2705

        Member
        April 26, 2022 at 10:18 pm

        Actually, Cobalt and Nickel are not all that rare: Lithium is the 33rd most common element on Earth, Cobalt is #32 and Nickel is #24. To put that in context, Copper is the 26th most common element and there’s 36% more Nickel than there is Copper. There’s 25% more Cobalt than there is Lithium.

    • kerbe2705

      Member
      April 26, 2022 at 10:11 pm

      Your sources are suspect: Fox News has an anti-EV, anti-climate, anti-renewable energy political stance and the Institute for Energy Research is a Conservative non-profit started – and run by – one of the Koch Brothers. The Institute for Energy Research is anti-EV, anti-climate, anti-renewable energy and none of its supposed “scientific” opinions have undergone peer review by actual scientists. In other words, IRE prints politically-motivated OPINIONS, not scientific FACTS.

      I ask you, therefore, to please pay attention to this statement: THERE IS NO LITHIUM SHORTAGE ON EARTH.

      Lithium is the 33rd most common element on Earth. To put that in context, Nitrogen is #31 and Lead is #37.

      • Patrick Liebknecht

        Member
        April 26, 2022 at 11:21 pm

        its not a shortage ( as in we will run out ) its a shortage as in ( it cant be mined and refine it quickly enough to keep up with the demand )

        so with the increased demand of lithium to make batteries for all the new EVs on the market and coming to market , is creating a shortage in lithium.

        I was simply asking if aptera has embraced what could make the semiconductor shortage look like a walk in the park.

        Lithium Shortage Will Get Worse; Prices Will Continue to Escalate – IER (instituteforenergyresearch.org)

        Lithium Shortage May Stall Electric Car Revolution And Embed China’s Lead: Report (forbes.com)

        Rivian CEO warns the looming EV battery shortage will make the chip shortage feel like ‘a small appetizer’ for what’s to come (yahoo.com)

        • Lou Verner

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 12:07 pm

          Patrick, While I, and likely most, agree that there is currently an availability shortage for lithium and other EV battery components, your original post snidely and incorrectly blamed “climate police” for permitting problems in opening a new lithium mine in this country. As Alain pointed out “if only there were”, they wouldn’t have anything to do with permitting new lithium mining. Rather it would be the EPA. There is no free lunch when it comes to energy and the “hidden” cost of going with EVs is that current batteries are in need of things (lithium, cobalt, nickel) that are extracted from the earth with not-insignificant environmental costs, either in terms of damage/destruction to the fragile ecosystems in which they’re found, or in terms of their toxic runoff, tailings (cobalt/nickel), or water depletion (lithium) or pollution. If we are indeed going to be moving toward an EV future that depends on such resources, it is absolutely necessary that we do so in as environmentally safe and sustainable way as possible. It’s all part of the bigger picture to tread as lightly as we can on this green and blue marble!

          • Alain Chuzel

            Member
            April 27, 2022 at 3:56 pm

            (Sorry if this ends up being the 3rd copy of this reply. Formatting issues and apparent deletions)

            👍 “…green and blue marble!” = as my hero, Carl, said: “Pale Blue Dot”

            Hope no one minds my copy and paste of the following from Wikipedia:

            In his 1994 book, Pale Blue Dot, Carl Sagan comments on what he sees as the greater significance of the photograph, writing: From this distant vantage point, the Earth might not seem of any particular interest. But for us, it’s different. Consider again that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there–on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

            Still gives me goosebumps.

            • Lou Verner

              Member
              April 27, 2022 at 6:23 pm

              Alain – Thanks for sending Sagan’s poignant commentary. Another hero who left us all too early. I’m guessing many of us who have our reserved an Aptera are doing so because it is the most environmentally sane motorized choice out there. No other vehicle offers the solar range that Aptera does and no other vehicle is made as sustainably as Aptera. I believe a strong environmental ethic was the motivating force for Steve and Chris in the first place. Mother’s Day is only 10 days away…let’s commit to doing all we can to honor and respect Mother Earth upon whom we all depend!

        • kerbe2705

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 5:45 pm

          @Patrick Liebknecht https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/15/how-the-us-fell-way-behind-in-lithium-white-gold-for-evs.html I recall reading that the Federal Government has identified 23 sites where lithium could be profitably mined, none of which are currently being exploited.

      • Curtis Cibinel

        Member
        April 26, 2022 at 11:38 pm

        It isn’t trivial to cost effectively extract lithium from sea water (but if current prices hold it will be done soon). I agree the source of information should be considered but try to check the facts vs dismiss due to the source. NCM batteries use a lot of nickel, cobalt sources need to be scrutinized (especially given Russia’s political situation as a typically “ethnical” source”), and lithium is 8x the price in the last year. I have been an outspoken advocate that Aptera should switch to LFP but am also realistic that this is 1-2 years away at best. On the positive side the Aptera uses less of everything because the battery is driving a super efficient vehicle. Regardless of nth most abundant on earth practical extraction/refinement is a real world factor and lithium is $80k USD / ton.

        PS: Now a month with me and my wife living on one car. I’ll pay my friends $5-20 to drive out of their way 10km to pick me up for a hike 2-5 times a month and still save a ton of money vs having a separate car. I work from home so the vehicle was only a convenience. Now that we are into “not-winter” I’m all for lime scooters or biking when I can. Saving my money for my Aptera.

        PSS: Thanks for fixing your links. Both were broken originally.

      • Francis Giroux

        Member
        April 27, 2022 at 7:44 am

        kerbe 2705, please site your sources for abundance of elements. It might matter to us that want to know how these relative abundances are determined. The list I found (https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-abundant-elements-in-the-earth-s-crust.html), which agrees mainly with your quotes, determines relative abundance by ppm (parts per million) which would give a much different rating than a list ranked by how many tons are estimated to exist. When Lead is listed as 37th most abundant by ppm and Lithium is listed as 33rd most abundant by ppm, how would they compare if ranked by tons available when Lead weighs 207 units per atom and Lithium only weighs 7 units per atom? Lead would be ranked 30 times more abundant if ranked by weight instead of ppm. Cobalt and Nickel would be ranked 8 times more abundant if ranked by weight. To put this in perspective, to isolate one ton of Lithium would require 8 times as many atoms as one ton of either Cobalt or Nickel. Its a good thing Lithium is as abundant as it is, or it would cost very much more than $80,000 per ton as cited by Curtis ($40 per pound, a little more than silver). But here again we need a source to be cited, because you don’t usually buy Lithium by the ton. Lithium is very reactive especially with air. You have to buy it in a compound to be safe. Two compounds normally sold are Lithium Carbonate (19% Lithium) and Lithium Hydroxide (19% Lithium). Which one is selling at $80,000 per ton?

        • John Malcom

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 9:54 am

          I am not sure what these discussions/arguments accomplish. I think all are moot points. EV manufacturers will pay what they need for the materials for their batteries regardless of chemistry, and other raw materials to implement their designs regardless of how the cost or availability are calculated or determined. This means the method of determining the rareness or availability is a non factor. Then, to the extent possible, pass those expenses on to the purchasers raising the price of the vehicle. We have seen this happen as we speak. My Model 3, if I bought it today, would cost nearly 20% more than I paid in just a couple of years

        • Curtis Cibinel

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 1:10 pm

          It is ~480,000 Yuan which is ~$75,000 USD for lithium carbonate. I think an article said it was $80k but close enough. Anyone running a battery factory is absolutely buying raw materials by the ton. The cost of these materials impact prices for the finished cells. Nickel is 33,000 yuan and Cobalt is 82,000; both are up 2-3x year over year. I haven’t found the amounts of each in 2170 cell but this article has some possibilities with different vendors; expect a lot of nickel and maybe 1/3rd as much cobalt.

          https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

          https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

          https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt

          http://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=914

          https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/samsung-40t

        • Francis Giroux

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 1:53 pm

          Lithium Hydroxide is 29% Lithium. For some reason the forum won’t let me edit my previous post.

          • BRUCE MENGLER

            Member
            April 27, 2022 at 4:18 pm

            The California Energy commission estimates the Salton Sea could produce 600,000 tons of lithium a year. That’s far more than the current world demand.

        • kerbe2705

          Member
          April 27, 2022 at 5:40 pm
  • Russell Fauver

    Member
    April 27, 2022 at 9:46 am

    I don’t know what the long-term effects will be to the rising demand for lithium. But what I do know is that I paid $7400 for a 19 kwh LFP pack almost 10 years ago. And earlier this month I got a quote of $6300 for a 42 kwh LFP pack. I hope this trend continues.

  • Patrick Liebknecht

    Member
    April 27, 2022 at 12:36 pm

    The discussion ( not argument ) is to raise the question, how will this affect our already 1 to 2 year late preorders ?

    I haven’t heard or read anything from aptera Stating they have secured enough batteries or lithium to cover the now 17k+ preorders, while I’m seeing Tesla and other EV makers are having trouble filling orders of production vehicles.

    If Tesla is having issues what’s to say a startup that hasn’t really started up is going to be able to buy enough batteries ?

    Suppliers sell to guaranteed money.

    ( keep in mind even though the USA sits on lithium, we don’t refine it here, we send it to China to be refined ) so the supply chair gets worse every time there is a 100% zero Covid lockdown in China.

    • kerbe2705

      Member
      April 27, 2022 at 5:48 pm

      Lithium mining is currently ramping up. Battery production is currently ramping up. Aptera won’t be ramping up to full-scale production for at least another year or two so my guess would be that they’re hoping that their production needs will ride the wave of increased battery production.

Viewing 1 - 7 of 7 replies

or to reply.

Original Post
0 of 0 posts June 2018
Now