Production schedule delay?

[curtis-cibinel]

They are getting an initial gamma done soon. They were quite clear about the intent to deliver units to customers this year but it will likely be more hand built and not handled in the same production stations that would be putting it together at scale (potentially assembled by the engineers). Essentially once the final design is set they will start making a small number manually as the 2 assembly facilities and are put together and line staff are trained.

[david-marlow]

Yes, the production schedule is slipping, in the interest of making a better product.

I was hoping that an actual Gama unit would be shown, but now that will not be until next month.

The solar cell development information was very interesting, indicating that other solar vehicles may not hold up as well.

I am concerned about the batteries while they can store more energy per pound, they will cost more and will be more temperature sensitive than other lithium batteries. Being that these vehicles are intended to be left out in the sun, the temperature management system is critical.

The electrical system is what I hoped it would be, however it is a software sensitive system. If something goes wrong with the system there could be serious problems, nothing was said on how that situation would be handled.

[kerbe2705]

@Qiang Fu Chris said, “…deliver a pre-production vehicle…” which is what @Curtis Cibinel describes in his response.

[joshua-rosen]

There is an Aptera Owners Club video where he makes the very reasonable claim that production won’t start until late next year. He’s reviewing a webinar where Chris Anthony says that production will start 9 months after they have the funding to do it, he also indicated that they don’t have the money yet. Start watching around 10:45

• This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Joshua Rosen.
• This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Joshua Rosen.
• This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by  Gabriel Kemeny.

[Mike-Mars]

Yep, mid-September Chris said crash testing in Q2 2023, and a bit after that he said customer deliveries in maybe about a year (i.e., Q3 2023). 9 months after funding is consistent with those statements.

[joshua-rosen]

At some point their window will close. It will still have it’s uniqueness, nothing else looks remotely like an Aptera, but it will lose it’s practical advantages. I’m primarily attracted to the Aptera by it’s range, I really like the idea of not being tied to fast chargers. By 2024, which now looks like the year that mine will be available, I’m guessing the Model 3/Y will have over 400 miles of range which hits the good enough level, it’s still less than the 600 that Aptera will have but as a practical matter that might not matter. My Model 3, which has about 250 miles of range @90% in good weather and less in cold weather, requires Supercharger stops on every trip. Another 100 miles of range would eliminate about 75% of my Supercharger stops which would give me more flexibility. My Model 3 will be five years old in 2024 which means that I’ll probably want to replace it. I don’t know if I’ll still want the Aptera by then or if I’ll just get another Tesla. If they go beyond 2024 I’ll definitely just upgrade my Tesla and forget about Aptera.

Anyone else have thoughts about their personal expiration window?

[Greek]

Joshua, I definitely understand your reasoning. Here is a thought, I’m not sure if you have seen the APTERA in person, will you feel you made a mistake when you are driving in your Tesla and an APTERA pulls up next to you?

Also, not sure how much your Tesla will cost by 2024? More than likely will be quite a bit more than APTERA’s 1,000 mile range vehicle.

[kerbe2705]

@Joshua Rosen I’m fine with 2024 – my Clarity will be six years old and will still have some resale value. 2025, though, might be pushing things a bit… For me it comes down to a race between Aptera and the Federal Infrastructure Law build-out: In my state (and the adjoining states) only Tesla vehicles are currently capable of traveling any distance because we have Superchargers but only one CCS multi-dispenser site and two individual single DC chargers. A 600 mile Aptera would make all the difference for my use-case until such time as the charging infrastructure improves.

[craig-merrow]

I’m hoping to get one by the summer of 2024. I can understand their lead times getting extended out, as it’s a big job to get an automobile company up and running, but hopefully they are just being overly cautious about expectations.

[ImAlwaysMIA]

I personally believe their window to market may have already closed. Putting aside current market conditions the Aptera is already looking like a hard sell compared to what other vehicle manufacturers have in their pipelines. While granted those vehicles will be nowhere near as efficient as the Aptera, other vehicles will be safer, come with more creature comforts, and provide far more utility.

[konijntje]

Before mid 2022, production was set to end of 2022, with still gamma and delta and now the launch edition revealed.

Why is the production now delayed for a whole whopping year? What happened that aptera didn’t know before?

Or is it purely funding?

[Greek]

At the moment….funding is the issue.

[harry-parker]

And funding is the issue because they totally changed how they will be making Aptera’s body. Before it was to be a craft person’s layout of a hollow honeycomb composite resin material, individually vacuum formed and UV cured into a body with no aluminum frame. Now the body will be made from solid chopped carbon fiber filled panels stamped out in presses and heat cured in autoclaves, with an aluminum frame, all made by the Italian supercar body shop firm C.P.C.

The original way had low capital cost 3D molds but was slower and more labor intensive. Getting to 10,000 Aptera per year would be challenging.

The new way is faster and less labor intensive, (so less expensive per part in high volume) but has expensive and long lead time 3D milled steel tooling required. Getting to 20,000 Aptera per year per assembly plant will be relatively easy.

[konijntje]

Thanks for the explanation, hard to believe that that takes a whopping year, though.

[harry-parker]

A large part of that year is the long lead time from the time they order a big tool like a robot to the time its delivered. Another long time is the time it takes to fully test their first production vehicles, including environmental testing in extremes and testing to destruction.

[john-young]

It will take AT LEAST a year before delivery. Usually you would have dozens of vehicles built, test them, find problems, put those learnings back into the design, make new vehicles, test them. Aptera has zero legacy parts that they know will work perfectly. Everything is new. The only thing they can count on is that the batteries will hold charge and the tires will hold air. All the systems and structures are new to the world. So the way I see the timeline for a validated vehicle is…1st physical pre-production Aptera in August/September. Build a dozen of these for testing of all kinds for the next 6 months or so. Reincorporate learnings into design during this process. Test again. Validate. Begin production. This is all assuming they keep on their funding schedule. I would say if everything goes perfectly – mid 2024 for 1st deliveries.

• This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  John Young.

[robert-paris]

I heard that the tooling and deliveries would not begin until 12 months after the additional $40M was raised from the Accelerate program because it would take 12 months to get everything ready.

Is this really true? So we are looking at a March / April 2024 launch VS late 2023?

So does the entire $40M need to be raised to start the “process” or could it be started with say $10M or $20M instead?

I’m just curious.

Thanks

Bob

[BigSky]

My understanding is that they need the capital to cut checks for equipment and tooling. Once they cut checks, it is ~9 months to deliver and install and another 3 to startup and debug. So I think it is 12 months from funding. I don’t think they are waiting on everything though. It seems to me that they have cut checks on the longest lead items (e.g. CPC molds) and they are doing and prioritizing as funding comes in. I do think we will be well into 2024 before we start to see vehicles.

• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  BigSky Country.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Gabriel Kemeny.

[Pragmatic_to_a_Fault]

Figure mid 2024 before you start seeing any sort of deliveries of the LE cars. If then

They need to raise the cash to qualify for the grant, if they miss the boat. They miss the grant and we are back in 2008 again

[Russell]

This is exactly why I’m disappointed with the leadership at Aptera. Their initial business model was based on their fiberglass/honeycomb composit body. It was projected to be profitable at 5,000 vehicles per year. Their Alpha vehicles were fiberglass, their Beta vehicle was fiberglass, the Gamma was fiberglass. All their suspension, handling, acceleration, efficiency testing and refining was done on their fiberglass/honeycomb construction body. They were to begin production by the end of ‘22 and with the reveal of Gamma it looked like they were right on track to meet that projection. Showing off the Gamma got me excited. I was thrilled about them staying laser-focused this time around (unlike last time when they kept making major design changes until they eventually went belly up) and I made my fourth and largest investment to help them achieve their goal. But then, with production goal in sight they repeated their mistakes of the past and did a complete revision of the body design pushing start up costs through the roof and production well into the future. Had I known they were going scrap all the work that they did on their composite body and start over from scratch with a yet to be developed carbon fiber one there’s no way I would have sent them any more money. The goal was in sight. Gamma was beautiful. Production was closer than it had ever been. Then they moved the goal post. Not really. They ripped the goal post out by the root and chunked it two to three years into the future… provided they can raise yet another fifty million dollars.

Sorry about the rant. I’m just a little disappointed that they still haven’t settled on a design after 15+ years of development.

[william-manewal]

I share your frustration, Russell. What’s helped me is the perspective gained by hearing Chris talk about how the massive reservation response changed their vision of a few cars to mass production, encouraged by Sandy Munro to go for it.

If you share in the vision of solar mobility being good for our species, then the more the better, even if it means a delay of our personal satisfaction of receiving and driving a cool new car.

Plus, it sounds like the composite stamping process will yield an overall better product.

Hang in there, buddy!