Realistic delivery timeline

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Realistic delivery timeline

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Realistic delivery timeline

  • Realistic delivery timeline

     Lou Verner updated 7 months, 2 weeks ago 44 Members · 130 Posts
  • Donald Kraper

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 7:29 am

    I’m an investor and ordered my Aptera on June 15th 2021.

    After seeing the investor Q&A the other day, I was thinking about when I could realistically expect delivery. I am assuming I am in between the 10k-11k order numbers.

    Just spitballing here…but with various delays, whether its chips or other supplies, my date of order, and the steep climb it can be to get things running at 100%, I expect my Aptera to be ready at the end of 2023, possibly beginning 2024.

    Would love to have it sooner, and I know the entire team is pushing to get these out. But trying not to have unrealist expectations.

    What are your expectations?

  • kerbe2705

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 10:26 am

    If “21912” is your order number, then you were the 11,912th person to place a pre-order.

    I’m #2705 – and, is the stars align correctly and Aptera is successful, I’m hoping to see my order filled some time in 2023 or 2024. My current vehicle – a Honda Clarity PHEV – just passed its second birthday, so I’m not in any ACTUAL hurry to replace it… ????

  • Gabriel Kemeny

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 11:36 am

    For context, Arcimoto, which started deliveries in late 2019 and is aided in their production process by Munro Associates (same as Aptera) produced 173 vehicles in the first half of 2021. Granted, not much happened in 2020 for them due to COVID, but you can see that ramping up to meaningful production levels can take some time.

  • John Malcom

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 12:55 pm

    You can see an estimate (At year level) for your delivery by looking at your order on the site. Of course your reservation (Not an order for the vehicle) is shown and so is the projected year for your delivery assuming you went through with your order.

    I believe this is best case as pointed out in this thread for many reasons, parts availability, schedule slippage on progressing development vehicles to production ready, and mostly because starting up a production, distribution, and support structure from scratch is d _ _ n hard.

    Encouraging is that they now have someone on board to shepherd that activity who is both experienced and has been successful in the past. Hopefully Aptera will support that activity with budget and resources (People).

    I have participated in this kind of effort in the vehicle and aerospace industry as a Six Sigma Process Consultant. Getting it right with few defects takes time even with the best people, facilities and processes.

    In the legacy auto industry there is a saying that you don’t want to buy/drive a vehicle in in first model year following a refresh as it takes about a yea to work out all o f the kinks and defects of the build process. With Aptera, it is a new vehicle, new procurement and manufacturing process in a new facility and no established support infrastructure for after sales support.

    So…I may not be bad to have delivery of an Aptera down stream.

    • Scott Price

      Member
      August 26, 2021 at 1:11 pm

      John, agreed. Aptera’s great team has a big & important task plus learning curve ahead. Although I was already interested and ready to pre-order as soon as the pre-order queue went live, I intentionally waited until around the 7000 point and placed my order then.

      • Lee Janes

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 8:33 am

        I agree with your reasoning, # 7,373. Gives them time to work out the kinks.

  • loswa loswa

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 1:03 pm

    2023/24 we will buy the 4 wheel Aptera ????

    • Joshua Vance Vance

      Member
      September 2, 2021 at 7:41 pm

      Where’d you find this?

      • Evan Erickson

        Member
        October 6, 2021 at 1:08 pm

        He’s a time traveler most likely

  • John Trotter

    Member
    August 26, 2021 at 8:07 pm

    My reservation number is 22862, so I am in place 12,862. The Aptera website says “2022” for delivery. That’s impossible and continuing to say it is not a good idea, imo. Frankly, I am comfortable being >10,000th as the birth defects should be reduced, but don’t insult my reasoning. I also have a Cybertruck on order for a long time, and Tesla is even LESS transparent, but at least we can see the factory being built and know when the thing might be built. Having drone footage of the Aptera factory will be interesting, but a location has not even been identified. First deliveries at least a year after the plant has been identified? Mine, 18 months later. mid-2024?

    • Gabriel Kemeny

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 4:55 am

      The thing is, you could be # 10K on the pre order list, but if you live in the Southern CA, there’s a good chance you’ll get yours before someone way ahead of you on the list in Australia or even in Kansas. Until production starts and the geographic distribution process is finalized, there may be little correlation between your spot on the pre order list and delivery. Don’t expect that 2022 delivery date to change for anyone till next year.

      • Fanfare 100

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 10:18 pm

        Thank you Gabe. Do you happen to remember in what countries some of these international factory locations would tentatively be?

      • Hans Roes

        Member
        October 16, 2021 at 7:49 am

        Thing is, I live in Europe, only joined the queue in September and the site is also saying 2022 for me. Something I find highly unlikely. And while is is impossible to state an approximate delivery date, setting such an optimistic date might hurt in the long time.

    • Joshua Rosen

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 7:10 am

      I sure hope it isn’t 2024, I’ll have lost interest by then. They need to start shipping something next year, maybe a couple of hundred units, and then be in mass production by 2023. They have some things going for them, the car is made of plastic so they won’t need a paint shop. They also aren’t planning on a high level of automation which will simplify setting up the factory. Finally their volumes are never going to be huge, maybe 500 to a 1000 a month when they are at peak production. But of course they have to have a completed product and they aren’t there yet and they need a factory and they haven’t picked a location for that either although the first few hundred could come out of their current facility. Finally in terms of getting one, divide your reservation position by 4, it they are lucky they’ll get a 25% conversion rate on the reservations. The reservation fee is only $100, that’s not commitment money it’s “that might be interesting” money.

    • BMW Bloch

      Member
      September 2, 2021 at 7:55 pm

      12862 : 261 working days : 8 working hours (1 shift) = 6 cars per working hour with 1 shift = 10 minutes per assembly station

      Which I consider to be realistic. Some assembly stations take less, some take more time. Shifts could be extended to 10 hours ( a stretch in that job) or a second shift added.

  • Henry Kitt

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 7:44 am

    I keep having this feeling that today would be the perfect day to unveil the Luna. Then finish up most of the beta vehicles by the end of October, do proper testing and tweaking, and have a production intent vehicle by the end of December 2021. I think they can roll out at least 200 vehicles by end of June 2022. End of December 2022 numbers? Who knows, but for 2023 they may hit the 10,000 deliveries target for that year, which would mean all deliveries would be fulfilled for current US orders. International is a bigger question mark.

    But I think the demand will be high enough to where if they can produce 50k+ of these a year and 100k+ of the 4 wheel version a year, they should.

    • Gabriel Kemeny

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 7:55 am

      @Henry Kitt In the latest video on investing, CEO Anthony mentioned 100K sq ft factories in Southern CA, Northern CA, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and a number of international locations. That kind of specific info suggests to me that production ramp up is already being thought about well beyond the current vehicle and the 10K/yr figure.

    • Joshua Rosen

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 8:15 am

      Surely you jest, 50K+ a year? Ford is producing 50K Mach-Es a year, that’s Ford a company that invented mass production of automobiles 110 years ago. A company with 5000 dealers and an SUV, the most popular car category. The Aptera is a quirky three wheel two passenger vehicle from a company that’s never shipped a car. I hope they can sell 10K of them a year eventually but that’s probably wildly optimistic.

      • Henry Kitt

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 9:31 am

        The Mach-E is awesome, but it suffers from the same issues as all the other EVs. Lack of convenience. The Aptera counters that with the “no charge” solar, 110v chargeability and up to 1000 mile range, plus being cheaper and faster. Surprisingly I have yet to see a Mach-E on the road, but they shouldn’t have a problem selling every vehicle they make if it’s just 50k a year. I actually went to test drive one a few weeks ago and they were like, “no, we don’t have any, those are rare and going fast. We can help you order one though”.

      • Doug Andersen

        Member
        September 6, 2021 at 7:18 am

        I read somewhere that reservations are coming in at 100 a day. 10k a year will not keep up with orders. Customers are going to fade away if the wait becomes too long.

    • George Hughes

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 12:12 pm

      I’m a great fan of the Aptera. In other posts, I’ve suggested this ‘new segment’ of automobile fits the United States in the future in such a way that with success of the sustainability principle in society – I want to live, I don’t want to die – there’ll be 50 million Aptera’s on the road.

      You don’t get there with a maximum out put of 10,000 vehicles a year.

      To me the real concept is how they expand? Do they open one or maybe two or three similar production facilities (100,000 sq/ft, 50 employee assembly locations) or go for a mega-factory (or take over Lordstown) with mega robots and all that jazz.

      As start up automaker without the billions of Elon, they’ve faced the future and see the behemoth autoplant is not future. Capital limitations of Aptera will limit the number of additional plants and the speed with which they can set up.

      There is a third alternative.

      What if Aptera supporters were to come together and establish, near them, 10-15 copies of the original production facility. This independent investment would be leveraged by the fact that other low-volume vehicles are potential markets for these MANPOWERED production facilities. That would equate to a potential production volume of over 100,000/yr.

      But why think small? There are many suitable 100000 sq/ft facilities and, for instance, there are 200+ television markets (Atlanta is central Ga; Washington, DC covers large portions of Virginia and Maryland, etc.) Figure the volume of 100 assembly plants nationwide and you’ve got a million unit production.

      The imperative in all this is the move to EV’s for transportation and as many of you know, there are forces, very wealthy sources, that will do what they can to thwart that.

      One might say, limiting Aptera to 10,000 units a year is successfully thwarting a competing transportation mentality – sustainability.

      And, let me suggest, sustainability will not be established by the creation of 100,000 vehicles with 200kw batteries because sustainability would be better served by 500,000 vehicles 40kw batteries. You’re going to move more people that way, sustainably.

      • John Malcom

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 1:13 pm

        George, I hope your post was done tongue in cheek. Otherwise I would suggest a refresh on Econ 101, specifically supply and demand curves. Take a look at Joshua Rosen’s post 8/27 at 7:01. Even though an Aptera enthusiast, his post is a realistic assessment of current and near future state for the Aptera.

      • Gabriel Kemeny

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 1:29 pm

        @George Hughes as I mentioned in my earlier reply the expansion production plan has already been mentioned by the CEO, several 100K sq ft factories. Hopefully sometime soon that webcast will be published for all to see.

  • Donald Kraper

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 8:17 am

    After reading the comments and re-watching the Q&A, I am now thinking late 2024, possibly 2025 for my Aptera.

    Not trying to be a bummer, just trying to be realistic. There is a ton of variables that are already known, and even with those I still see a heck of a steep climb. But when we add in the unknown variables, that turns into climbing Everest.

    I’m in for the long haul so waiting is fine for me. Although I would love to see it sooner, I would rather the team take the time needed to do it right. ????

  • Peter Jorgensen

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 8:47 am

    For what it’s worth I’m #21623 (around 10000 ahead of me) and I’m just now starting a $200 lease on a Kia Niro EV. Hopefully by the time the lease is up in 2024 the Aptera will be ready, and if not, by then there will be a lot of better budget options on the market. In the mean time, I’m going to enjoy finally being fossil fuel free.

  • Charles Overbeck

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    I placed my pre-order on Jan 15th and got Order number 1680x.

    But keep in mind some critical points that they pointed out several times.

    1) 400 mile FWD version will be produced first (with 250, 600 and finally 1000 mile versions to follow according to CEO Chris Anthony)

    2) I ordered the 400 mile FWD version so realistically we can cut the orders ahead in Half (that assumes that the 250, 600 & 1000 + all AWD 400 mile versions only make up 50% of the orders total). That seems like a very conservative estimate.

    3) I am willing to pay cash for the vehicle today. (just need a test drive and I will hand over the full amount)

    With that all being said I am really hoping to get my new Aptera in the 1st Quarter of 2022.

    • John Malcom

      Member
      August 27, 2021 at 9:27 pm

      Gabe, I have a bridge in New York city I can sell you real cheap.

      You certainly haven’t worked in R&D transitioning to production for a new product.

      • John Malcom

        Member
        August 27, 2021 at 9:41 pm

        Charles you may want to reread your post and take note of all of the assumptions then reassess your projection. By the way all transactions with a manufacturer are cash transactions. As soon as you sign a note the lender transfers the funds directly to the manufacturer if no dealer as an intermediary as will be the case with Aptera so no bumping the line as a cash buyer.

      • Gabriel Kemeny

        Member
        August 28, 2021 at 8:59 am

        @John Malcom I simply provided what Aptera itself has mentioned- I never mentioned a timeline or how realistic that plan is.

    • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

      Member
      August 28, 2021 at 7:56 am

      @Charles Overbeck, One probable fairly big flaw with your reasoning, is it appears your are thinking that the four production runs they refer (400, 250, 600, 1,000), will be for all the preorders. I would be highly skeptical of that happening. I personally would expect, a few hundred vehicles to be the total for the first “master run” (All four variants of the vehicle.) Beyond that, the size battery selected would likely have little effect on one’s position for production.

    • Joshua Rosen

      Member
      August 28, 2021 at 9:18 am

      Charles. You stand a chance of getting your car in 2022 but not in Q1, optimistically (maybe wishful thinking) Q3. By choosing the 400 mile FWD version you’re in the first queue. I don’t think they will ever produce the 1000 mile version, they’ve said that will require a redesign. The 1000 mile battery will weigh 400-500lbs more than the 600 mile battery and it has almost zero additional value over the 600 mile version. The 600 mile version crosses the threshold where you’ll almost never need to supercharge it, the only way you can do more than 500 miles in a day is a very long day’s drive on an Interstate and they haven’t built a human bladder yet that’s big enough to do that trip without multiple stops. The 250 mile version presents no technical challenges but it’s strictly a price play so they might never offer it because there won’t be enough margin. That leaves the 400 and 600 mile versions, they are doing 400 first, don’t know if there are any technical challenges that will delay the 600 mile version. The 600 mile battery will weigh 200-250lbs more than the 400 mile battery, hopefully the suspension as it is will be able to handle that. I’ve reserved a 600 mile AWD, if AWD pushes the delivery date way out I might be willing to switch to the FWD because I think of the Aptera as a summer car, but I’m not interested in the 400 mile version because it does less for me than my Model 3 which although it has less range than the Aptera it has access to the Supercharger network and it charges fast enough that the charging time seldom exceeds bathroom time.

      • Charles Overbeck

        Member
        August 28, 2021 at 11:23 am

        I was originally hoping for sometime in 2021, but I hope it doesn’t stretch into Q3 of 2022. (Gotta be optmistic) I was very presently surprised to hear they were already have over 120 people on board, and have hired a VP who has experience in Logistics. Having someone focused on scaling up production and manufactoring (and not the CEOs) is really critical here.

        We do need a lot of items to fall into place very quickly to get even the first customer vehicle out the door in 2021. Beta, Gamma, Delta still to go and certainly can’t stay at the rate of 1 update a month (as there are only 4 more “updates” ) at that rate left in 2021.

        • Gabriel Kemeny

          Member
          August 28, 2021 at 6:00 pm

          @Charles Overbeck where did the 120 personnel on board number come from?

          • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

            Member
            August 28, 2021 at 6:14 pm

            A recent update, but it does not indicate that the 120 are Aptera employees , this probably includes employees of facilities doing work for Aptera as well. (IE. invest.aptera, Elaphe, Roush, Etc.)

            • Charles Overbeck

              Member
              August 28, 2021 at 8:48 pm

              ~33:45 in the Q & A Video attached “Over 120 on the org chart last time he looked” Chris Anthony.

              Link to Video “https://aptera.us/community/discussion/chris-anthony-will-answer-some-of-the-frequently-asked-questions/#post-4497”

              Chris Anthony will answer some questions

      • Jesse Spears

        Member
        October 6, 2021 at 2:06 pm

        [I’m trying to reply to Joshua Rosen, but replying to his message seems to be picking a different message to reply to]

        I hope you’re wrong, Joshua, about the 1000 mile battery version being scrapped. I’ve just placed an order for one 🙂

        Using abetterrouteplanner.com to look at some of our common road trips, we _could_ make do with a 600 mile version, but the 1000 mile version would cut about 2-3 hours off a common trip, one way (depending on tweaks to settings). Their data is obviously preliminary (they assume CCS is the only charger Aptera will use, for instance, but I’m hoping they’ll add a Supercharger option as has been hinted at).

        For a trip that we make 2-4 times a year, saving 5-6 hours roundtrip is worth the money, at least for us.

        Will that still be true when they finally get around to making the 1000 mile versions? I have no idea. But I hope they keep that option.

        • John Trotter

          Member
          October 6, 2021 at 3:50 pm

          My rationale for passing on the 1000 mile or even 600 mile battery: Aptera has a great charging rate, in miles-added-per-minute, at Level 2 or Level 3 charging stations. (Even at Level 1, 120Vac, overnight is plenty to refill a 400-mile battery) Breaking a long drive for food and necessities, and charging during the stop, seems long enough for an essentially infinite drive, even with the 400 mile battery.

          We use our Tesla Model Y with a battery with less than 300 miles range and even in back country without Superchargers, we can find plenty of places to charge. I don’t think it adds much time, if any, to our trips. Besides, charging stations are popping up all over, not to mention plan old 120Vac outdoor outlets.

          • Jesse Spears

            Member
            October 6, 2021 at 4:45 pm

            If things keep improving, I might drop down to a 600 mile range.

            But at the moment, there just aren’t enough fast chargers in the right places for us.

            Using Plugshare, and removing anything less than 50kw leaves huge holes in west Texas and New Mexico (doesn’t matter if it’s CCS or Tesla). Heck, Lubbock doesn’t have a single charger of that speed (there is 1(!) 25kw CCS charger at a Harley Davidson, and after that you’re down to a bunch of unverified L1 chargers and a few RV camp sites with NEMA plugs).

            This car is intended to take over as our road trip car (currently we have my wife’s 2014 Prius for that, and I have a 2018 Leaf for my local driving). That means it needs to actually be able to drive 9+ hours a day at highways speeds (70-75 for most of Texas). I don’t mind stopping and charging, but without fast chargers, that means we’re done driving for the day when we stop.

            Try entering in a trip from Austin, TX to Pagosa Springs, CO as an example of what I’m looking at. With 1000 miles range it’s a fairly straight trip with stops in Sweetwater, TX and Santa Rosa, NM (distance 845 miles, time 13h 57m). We’d stay the night in Santa Rosa (but there aren’t chargers at the hotels, just at the Love’s Truck Stop nearby).

            At 600 mile range we’re up to 3 stops (and one of those stops is in Lubbock with only a single 25kw charger available, assuming it’s working and available when arrive). Distance 848, time 15h 34m.

            At 400 mile range (simulated by using 600 mile range + 35% battery degradation), it’s 884 miles, 16h 48m, and 5 stops (one of which is a 54 minute stop at the hopefully working/free 25kw charger in Lubbock)

            For comparison, using a Model 3 standard range increases the distance to 975 miles, and the time to 18h 44m with 8 charging stops.

            There’s really just not good coverage, still, in large parts of the southwest (including most of rural Texas).

            • John Trotter

              Member
              October 6, 2021 at 6:22 pm

              Yeah, for sure West Texas isn’t California. (What is it with Congressman Nehls wanting to take charging stations out of the federal infrastructure bill?)

              You clearly have thought this through and reached a reasonable conclusion. Were I to do a trip like this in my Tesla or my (theoretical) 400 mile Aptera, I’d find a hotel with overnight charging and do enough Fast DC charging to get there and to my final destination on day 2. (Actually, in our elder years, we’d probably split this into 3 days, but I know that’s not reasonable for everyone.)

              But, I can see the decision for a 600 mile Aptera too. I just think dragging along 400 lbs of battery 365 days a year to avoid a few charging stops on a few days is wasteful (purchase price and operating cost).

    • SonicMustang

      Member
      October 13, 2021 at 1:55 am

      Paying cash is NOT preferable to Aptera. They will make more money buy having you finance the car (kick back from lenders). Just like regular car dealers – if you want the best price, walk in to your Ford dealer and tell them you want to finance the car. The dealer gets paid by the bank in full and the bank pays the dealer for referring the loan.

  • Paul Evans

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    Here’s something to consider….

    I was looking through the preadsheet yesterday for an answer to another post and stumbled upon this little nugget:

    Q – How many mold sets do you plan to have when in full production?

    A – 20

    So I have a follow-on question I’d to hear about – Is that 20 for a single production facility, or, 5 for each of 4 facilities, or 10 at 2 facilities.

    Then I recalled a web-cast with Nathan Armstrong who described their ramp-up plan. I no longer have the web-cast & I don’t remember the exact figures, but he said something like they’ll get 1 or 2 out in December, 5-7 in January,10-15 in February, 25-30 in March, 60-75 in April, 120-150 in May, 250-300 in June, 500-750 in July, and full production (800-1000) in August. Again, those numbers are not accurate but an estimated recollection.

    So if they’re bringing on two mold sets per month, the numbers above don’t seem very out of line. With Covid, supply chains, chips and other unanticipated events throwing everything out of whack, they might be hard-pressed to get to full production by the end of ’22.

    I can at least dream of getting my Aptera before ’23, can’t I? As for full disclosure, I’m awful at remembering numbers. ????

  • Charles Overbeck

    Member
    August 27, 2021 at 11:16 pm

    Sorry John My point wasn’t that I would get to jump the line. It was more that I don’t expect all 6800 of the orders before mine to convert. Some will be in the other categories that they have already mentioned will not be made for a while and others will not translate into full vehicle purchases just because.

    By virtue of both those expected realities I didn’t believe my vehicle to be the 6800th off the assembly line but something more like 1500-2000.

    Now if they really can’t get to making more than 100 before the 2nd half of 2022 then I certainly will be challenged to get mine at all in 2022.

    Here’s to hoping they can ramp to at least 4-5 cars per day by the time January 2022 is complete (which would only be 120-150 cars in the month) and quickly increase from there.

    • John Malcom

      Member
      August 28, 2021 at 9:10 am

      Charles, My apologies. I did not mean to imply you would “Bump” the line.

      Almost everything we post on the forum is conjecture on our part as Aptera (Rightly) keeps a lot of information closely held.

      I agree the conversion rate certainly will be less than 100%. I have been trying to find some valid/reliable information on conversion rates of this type. Tesla of course is the best fit (Newly engineered vehicle with reservations and new production) but the information is all over the map and requires a lot of statistical manipulation to take out bias and variation.

      Same with start up production actual vs. planned

  • GLENN ZAJIC

    Member
    August 28, 2021 at 2:20 am

    I am a bit surprised at some of the negativity here. I believe when these hit the road, they will easily be able to sell 10,000/year just in California. Sure it won’t happen in year one, but just hang on. It is going to be a ride! Then, when the sedan hits, it will double. Expecting mine early ’23.

    • John Malcom

      Member
      August 28, 2021 at 9:00 am

      Glen, I think most on the forum do not question that the vehicle will “Sell” I believe that most of the concern, at least mine anyway, focuses on the ability to ramp up production while maintaining quality for a first time manufacturing effort, for a newly designed vehicle, in facility(s) yet to be fitted for production, and with new hire production people. It is a daunting task. Even Tesla, the current king of EVs had a difficult time at first.

      I believe the Aptera is a couple of orders of magnitude easier to manufacture than any Tesla model (Less complicated design and engineered for production as well as efficient travel) I believe Aptera will come up the learning curve quickly.

      By virtue of the Monroe authored process, and the leadership of the new VP of procurement and production(Experienced an successful), I think they will do better than most, but still a difficult task to keep on a schedule that will satisfy their waiting enthusiasts and a critical market anxious to discredit any prospective rival that might take market share.

      I will reserve judgement on the end game until the Delta Prototype (Production ready) is released (Hopefully on schedule) and we see first unit production rates in the early months of 2022.

      Aptera will be judged in the market on Sales, Production (On schedule at forecasted volume), and First Time Quality. All four have to be spot on to be judged a success by potential customers and the market.

      In a past life I did a lot of R&D competitive analysis. I am doing that now (for fun – yes I am a little geeky in my retirement) between Aptera and a U.S. competitor that is scheduled to deliver to the market in the same timeframe as Aptera. Also a first time in the vehicle market entrepreneurial enterprise. The competitor is ahead at this point with Betas built and tested and manufacturing planning and implementation well along the way. The competitor has had a lot of senior management turmoil, a big negative at this point in their business operations. Aptera has consistent, successful management, which in the long run, is the biggest discriminator for success.

      • kerbe2705

        Member
        August 28, 2021 at 9:01 pm

        FYI, “Munro”.

        • John Malcom

          Member
          August 29, 2021 at 4:29 pm

          Tks for the correction on my spelling

      • GLENN ZAJIC

        Member
        August 29, 2021 at 1:24 pm

        John, no argument with what you stated, and nothing wrong with geeks! What I think about that boosts my confidence is that this is not the first at bat for Chris, Steve or Aptera. These guys are sharp, determined and obsessed with bringing this to market the right way. They are not under outside control and I do not believe they will release a product that has serious problems. Yes there are difficulties of course but they hire the smartest people they can find who share their visions. Once this is out on the street there are going to be plenty of stories like; what do you mean you drive it daily, had it 6 months, and haven’t recharged it yet? The shopping cart smashed into my door but I can’t tell where. This is seriously different, not a Miata or MG but it does not meet every-ones needs either. But there has NEVER been one of these as a production vehicle. It is a game changer!

    • Joshua Rosen

      Member
      August 29, 2021 at 9:03 am

      It’s not negativity it’s realism. It’s a two seat car, those don’t sell in large numbers. 8800 Miata’s were sold last year, the BMW Z4 sold less than 2400 in the US. To find a two seater that sold better than the Miata you have to go back to the 1960s and the MGB, they sold 400,000 over an 18 year period. BTW if Aptera can pull this off and actually get their car out the door they do have opportunity to become the MGB of the 21st century but that’s a small niche.

      • Henry Kitt

        Member
        August 29, 2021 at 10:44 am

        Over 1 million Miatas have sold worldwide, and the car doesn’t offer anything new in the segment, only a cheaper price point. Aptera offers at least 3 new things AND a cheaper price point. Though people seeking a convertible may not buy an Aptera.

        • Philip Raymond

          Member
          August 29, 2021 at 11:21 am

          It’s also an apple to oranges comparison to the Miata when it comes to utility as well. The Miata had 4.5 cubic feet of cargo space, Aptera has 25 cubic feet of cargo/camping space. I do understand Joshua’s concern, but in my own opinion, it simply doesn’t apply to the Aptera.

        • Joshua Rosen

          Member
          August 29, 2021 at 7:03 pm

          <div>Here is Mazda’s sales report, the MX-5 Miata sold 8800 cars in 2020 which was up from 2019, where did you get that 1M number?</div><div>

          </div><div>

          Mazda Reports December and Full Year 2020 Sales Results

          </div>

          • Henry Kitt

            Member
            August 29, 2021 at 7:42 pm

            I know their year by year figures, but they’ve sold well over 1 million in total. Hype should be expected to die after a few years of production. Basically the Aptera isn’t even that niche, it competes in many segments in an evolving EV world with not many current players, but yes, people generally like 4-5 seats more than 2.

      • Gabriel Kemeny

        Member
        August 29, 2021 at 3:45 pm

        The volume is never meant to happen with the current vehicle, it’s a niche vehicle which will be eclipsed in sales by the future 4 wheeled version.

        • GLENN ZAJIC

          Member
          August 29, 2021 at 6:51 pm

          I agree that the four wheeler will outsell the three, but I also believe that niche you speak of will be a chasm. I have ordered this one, and will (probably?) give it to my daughter when I get the four.

  • David Marlow

    Member
    August 29, 2021 at 5:31 am

    I’m also an investor and Ambassador, I ordered on the morning of the 6th day orders were allowed and was surprised to see that were all ready more than 3000 orders ahead of mine.

    I understand that most of these were from loyal followers from the previous version and these deserve priority as well as investors and Ambassadors. Also it has been mentioned that they will start producing the 400 mile versions first (maybe for the first six months?). So I have changed my order to that range. I want to take it to as many EV events and car shows as I can and will have it proudly out in the sun in front of my house soaking up the sun when not showing it off otherwise.

    With all of this said, I hope to get mine sometime in the summer of 2022 to maximize the number of events I can take it to.

  • Fanfare 100

    Member
    August 29, 2021 at 8:40 pm

    Once Aptera manufacturing gets the ball rolling, I would LOVE for Aptera Motors to post a Master Schedule of their Production for all of us to see. I would also love to see a more fine-tuned forecast of the anticipated order delivery than simply “2022”with at first mentioning on what Quarter to what month, to what day as the time gets closer. I think it would be nice to see that part right on the Dashboard.

  • John Malcom

    Member
    August 29, 2021 at 8:50 pm

    Wow, I am not sure how we got into this food fight on the potential number of Aptera sales under the heading “Realistic Delivery Time” but we did and I got caught up in it too!

    I will summarize my thoughts:

    – Aptera has excellent management that have delivered a well designed ground braking vehicle in the EV world that is less complex and much easier to manufacture

    – Production, at best is a daunting task

    – Aptera realizes this and has hired a well qualified Exec to lead logistics and manufacturing and is starting to hire production staff

    – The production process was designed by Munro, Proven consultants in Lean Manufacturing in the auto industry

    – I am a little anxious because of my previous experience in the manufacturing domain and am looking forward to Aptera’s update on manufacturing plans and schedule

    Now as for how many Apteras will sell, really none of us know or have enough information to forecast that reliably. I know at least one will sell, that is the one I will buy and be glad I have it and will show it off to all of the “Green with envy” want to have one too’s

  • Henry Kitt

    Member
    August 29, 2021 at 10:12 pm

    Which production process is simpler, Aptera or Arcimoto? Arcimoto hasn’t had any production hell issues that I know of, and both companies are being aided by Munro. Arcimoto, however, IS niche compared to Aptera. But it may be good to assess how well Arcimoto is meeting their current demand for comparison.

    It seems over 2 years ending Dec last year they only sold 150 vehicles, but this was mostly during the height of Covid, and intend to produce 50k a year after moving into a much larger facility a few months ago, currently only officially taking sales in 4 states. We need Aptera to do better…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F2HiYYWBj6Y

  • Steven G. Bueche

    Member
    August 30, 2021 at 4:17 am

    I wouldn’t compare Arcimoto with Aptera at all. It appears to be strictly a summer thing.

    IMHO Aptera will appeal to todays generation because of a few things;

    *They’re staying single longer if not forever or at least without the paper.

    *No hurry to have children.

    *Will enjoy their freedoms of staying at Moms house but having their own wheels

    *They love anything that sets them apart from the adult old fashioned world

    *Don’t want to spend a fortune on a car and only see it as a mode of transportation (unless it’s outside the box)

    *Don’t want to live in indentured servitude to the banks (We have a great price point)

    As for production, I’d like them to stick to getting cars out starting in the beginning of 2022 but things don’t appear that way. Since my number is so high 22335, I think I may not see mine until 2023. If that would be the case I’d at least like a way to start making payments on it in hopes of financing as few dollars as possible.

    • Gabriel Kemeny

      Member
      August 30, 2021 at 8:42 am

      The comparison in terms of production and delivery (the topic of this thread) is somewhat legit in that a similar sized company was only able to produce 170 vehicles in the first six months of this year despite being production for almost two years.

    • Peter Jorgensen

      Member
      August 30, 2021 at 9:50 am

      That’s me in a nutshell! Young, good job, no kids… Minus the living at home part. But close enough. I don’t need 4 seats – I want something efficient and affordable that isn’t stuck in yesterday’s world. And if it looks like an airplane that’s awesome too!

      • John Trotter

        Member
        August 30, 2021 at 5:29 pm

        I’m old, no job (retired), distant grandkids, living in my own home. Not sure any of these characteristics matters.

        I don’t need 4 seats either, because we have one of those and learned over many years that a two-seat car can be great (Boxster, in that case), when paired with something a bit bigger.

        I do value fun over efficient, but they are not mutually exclusive.

        However, given mortality rates in my cohort, I hope for sooner rather than later!

    • John Malcom

      Member
      September 1, 2021 at 4:40 pm

      I agree with Steven B. Acrimoto is being sued for misrepresenting their reservation numbers much like Lordstown

  • Dean McManis

    Member
    August 30, 2021 at 8:56 pm

    I am actually hoping to get my Aptera around this time next year. There are certainly a million possibilities for delay, but I think that they will build thousands of Apterae in 2022, by the end of the year.

    • John Malcom

      Member
      September 1, 2021 at 4:39 pm

      The other side of the production equation is demand. Forecasting, planning, resourcing, and scheduling production is based on accurately forecasting, tracking, and adjusting to demand. Producing more or less than the demand in any given timeframe is a no-no and either wastes resources or fails to generate expected revenue/margin. Ideally you want both to match (“Just in time – a lean manufacturing concept) but that seldom happens because of all of the variables that you have to juggle.

      An example. The Honda Insight Generation 1(Revolutionary at the time because of its aerodynamics, light weight, and electric assist producing unheard of MPG) sold a total of 17,020 world wide from 1999 to 2006 (Average of 215/yr) They planned to sell and sized production for 6,500/yr. An oops for Honda, a well established and successful car company.

      I have confidence Aptera will do much better with the demand curve and will build a production capacity to match demand closely regardless of the volume. They will manage production as efficiently as they engineered their vehicle. I believe that demand curve will grow. Maybe not exponentially, but polynomialy.

      • Dean McManis

        Member
        September 3, 2021 at 7:40 am

        All good points. I believe that despite appealing to a relatively limited market, the Aptera has the ability to increase its demand greatly over time. Like the original Honda Insight, the Aptera puts together a lot of great attributes like high efficiency, aerodynamics, and light weight, and adds solar power, full electric operation using less expensive/better batteries, wheel motors, composite body shell, and many other modern innovations. There is a growing worldwide support for EVs and clean, efficient vehicles, combined with rising gas prices which increases the Aptera’s appeal. And once the first production Aptera EVs start populating the roads, I think that Aptera will need to expand production to meet the increased demand. As Honda did with their Insight.

        • John Malcom

          Member
          September 3, 2021 at 1:59 pm

          Dean, Honda did not increase their production for the Insight. They planned for production of 6,500 per year and averaged only 215 per year. That is a 6,285 unit sales shortfall. They sold only 7 in the first model year of production

          • Gabriel Kemeny

            Member
            September 4, 2021 at 5:57 am

            @John Malcom I think you are missing at least a zero on the Insight yearly sales – with 17K units sold in 6 years, that’s almost 3K per year.

            • John Malcom

              Member
              September 4, 2021 at 10:59 am

              Absolutely! Inexcusable from someone who would claim to making decisions based on data.

              I pulled the data and used a computer to do the calc this time. This is a chart of the data for U.S. Sales for the 9 years of production of the Honda Insight, Gen 1. The trend line is not a good fit to the data (R2 of .36) and with a sample size of only 9 the Mean and Standardization are all over the place. Worthless actually because it is not a normal distribution and didn’t want to take the time to transform it.

              I am sure Honda changed their production capacity after seeing demand far below the capacity after a couple of year but can’t find numbers on it.

              The point of course, is that demand determines the production rate not the production plan or capacity. In this case, with a new and innovative product at the time, Honda’s demand projections were way to optimistic and they over planned production. Not as big of a deal for Honda, but for a start up with limited capital, could be catastrophic.

              I think, with COVID, and chip shortage no analysis using historical data will be valid or reliable thus extra caution advised if “Drinking the coolaid”

  • Robert Klasson

    Member
    September 3, 2021 at 1:50 am

    I’m hoping to get mine early 2024, as that’s when the mortgage on our Zoe will be paid off. May not be realistic though since I live in Europe.

    • Jorge Lopez

      Member
      October 14, 2021 at 7:38 am

      Any chance to know whether they may release in Europe?

    • Robert Klasson

      Member
      October 15, 2021 at 1:57 am

      As far as I know, we have no official commitment from Aptera that they will sell the Aptera in Europe, but they are looking into it and have said that they are planning on selling it world wide, which I interpret as anywhere it’s road legal. There is some regulatory issues to work out for europe though, since we don’t have an autocycle category for vehicles and it’s too big for the EU 3-wheel motorcycle category (L5e). I would also expect them to change the physical CCS charging connector to the EU variant for any vehicles built for the european market, which may lead to additional delays.

      • Henry Kitt

        Member
        October 15, 2021 at 7:38 am

        Wouldn’t Aptera be considered a car in most of Europe, given that there have been a bunch of 3 wheel cars there in the past?

      • Robert Klasson

        Member
        October 15, 2021 at 8:45 am

        I haven’t done much research into older 3-wheel vehicles in Europe. Most probably went under national rules, which likely varied quite a lot in different parts of Europe before the EU harmonized legislation across Europe, but those old national regulations are difficult to find since most of them are obsolete. I’ve had trouble finding them online, at least the one’s we used to have here in Sweden where I live.

  • John Malcom

    Member
    September 3, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    I am sure all on the forum know this as they are particularly informed in the EV community but still may be worth mentioning for those that are worried about potential production slippages.

    This week two 900lb gorillas in the EV space have made announcements about the production impact of the shortage of chips. GM announced that they were suspending production in North America for a period because of the shortage. And Tesla (Current king of the EV) announced that the production of the sports car version of a Tesla would be postponed due to the chip shortage.

    I believe that Aptera production plans could be impacted as well. However, any delay in production can not be attributed to a shortcoming in Aptera’s engineering or management. And, with the addition of an executive to shepherd supply chain and production, may have an innovative work around for the chip issue (They are noted for innovation aren’t they)

    • Curtis Cibinel

      Member
      October 6, 2021 at 2:50 pm

      One challenge will be where to put the half completed vehicles if they end up delayed for final parts. Tesla builds 98% of a car then adds missing components when available. Since Aptera will have orders of magnitude less factory scale they may have logistics challenges storing partially built vehicles if all the pieces in their longer supply chain don’t work perfectly. If the plan is 6000 completed cars in 2022 then realistically the number will probably be closer to 4000.

    • John Trotter

      Member
      October 6, 2021 at 3:27 pm

      I doubt the Tesla delay is for chips. More likely for batteries. The Roadster needs a bunch and they need to be the 4680s.

      Aptera is in a way different situation than GM. That old company has stuck with old chips and the chip makers will not expand new production for the old chips. And GM needs chips for millions of cars. I assume Aptera uses state-of-the-art (as does Tesla) for their humble ordering level. I expect chip makers like new, expanding, customers.

      Nope, I’m not giving Aptera the easy excuse. I will say that building a new car is extremely tough in and of itself and optimistic program plans are probably a good thing.

      Aptera will never need to put cars in delay storage.

  • John Malcom

    Member
    September 3, 2021 at 1:38 pm

    Don K, I think you are absolutely correct about the first production run and that after the abbreviated run of all Aptera range versions used to validate/streamline production process for version idiosyncrasies, (Makes good production and quality assurance sense and a standard new production procedure) that the reservation order will take precedence

    After a run, including all range versions, they can be assured that regardless of which version a reservation holder that goes forward with a purchase will specify, Aptera can can produce and deliver a quality product quickly

  • Andrew Kleinert

    Member
    October 15, 2021 at 4:00 pm

    I’ve found that a general rule of thumb in product development (for smaller things than motor vehicles) that when a company gets to a stage that they can put the intended product in the hands of the end user, and the end user through a cursory use of the product is convinced that the product is ready for sale, then that’s around the half way point of the get-to-market timeline. That’s why ‘Minimum Viable Product’ thinking is a good thing for new product launches. Aptera hasn’t reached that point yet (Jay Leno wasn’t convinced that the car was ready for sale). I’m curious to see if this rule of thumb applies to Aptera as well. How long has Aptera Reboot been going for? Around two years?

  • Danny Mattijetz

    Member
    October 15, 2021 at 9:20 pm

    We used to have a saying when I was developing software:

    The first 80% of the job took 80% of the time.

    The last 20% of the job took the other 80% of the time.

    I hope Aptera does better.

    • John Malcom

      Member
      October 16, 2021 at 1:12 am

      Interesting metric, but perhaps to optimistic for software????

      • Ray Holan

        Moderator
        October 16, 2021 at 4:58 am

        When I was quoting software development projects, I always multiplied my time to completion estimate by 3. For most projects, that was about right. Here’s hoping that doesn’t apply in Aptera’s case. A 2025 delivery date gives me the Halloween shivers;)

    • Oz (It’s Oz, just Oz)

      Member
      October 16, 2021 at 6:02 am

      Danny and Ray:

      Westheimer’s Rule

      To estimate the time it takes to do a task: estimate
      the time you think it should take, multiply by 2, and
      change the unit of measure to the next highest unit.
      Thus allocate 2 days for a one hour task.

      • Ray Holan

        Moderator
        October 16, 2021 at 6:47 am

        Thanks, Oz Man. Never heard of Westheimer’s Rule. You learn all kinds of new cool stuff in this Forum!

    • John Trotter

      Member
      October 16, 2021 at 7:08 am

      There is a now-ancient book (80s or earlier) about software development called “The Mythical Man-Month” in which the author talks about the inability to stick to schedules and labor estimates. However, one insight I have kept with has been that he also said that, about half way through, a (software) project would be better off simply starting over again, incorporating the lessons learned during the start. The project would be finished sooner, with a better-designed product. It seems that’s what Aptera has done, albeit with a years-long gap between first and second round.

      • Ray Holan

        Moderator
        October 16, 2021 at 10:26 am

        Interesting piece of information there, John. I should add that my wife and I just had our kitchen cabinets and countertops replaced and added a couple of extra cabinets. The contractor’s time estimate was 3-4 weeks to do the whole project including waiting for the countertop company to measure, cut, deliver and install the countertops. It actually took 10 weeks. We got really good about using an electric frying pan to cook our dinner. LOL. So it seems Westheimer’s rule can be applied to areas other than vehicle development and software projects.

      • John Malcom

        Member
        October 16, 2021 at 12:32 pm

        John, I have that book on my shelf! It has saved my bacon a number of times. The principles are still pertinent (Not only in the SW world, but every complex R&D project associated with delivering a product) We seem to need to learn those lessons time and again.

    • Andrew Kleinert

      Member
      October 16, 2021 at 4:17 pm

      I’m enjoying the discussion on this topic.

      In my own experience, software projects tend to be a bit different to physical hardware projects. The capital expenditure profile tends to be quite different between the two. These days business folks tend to be very receptive to agile software projects that deliver a minimal product ASAP, and then quickly iterate with new features. They tend to be less receptive to iterating hardware given they might need to outlay significant new capital with each new iteration (Eg: new moulds, new tools) and might not project to return a profit until version 3 or version 4. In my own experience physical hardware projects lag significantly behind software projects in this thinking.

      There are many other differences – software typically doesn’t face the same supply chain issues, or tolerance stack issues, or product recall issues. Both face different verification and validation issues. But despite all that I do think that software project management tends to be a bit more of a mature industry and there are things there that hardware development can learn from.

  • G Johns

    Member
    October 16, 2021 at 1:49 pm

    Of course I wanted one ten years ago so waiting another year or two is sad but acceptable, quite sad. I keep reading about lower costing tesla and cheaper Chinese in the future but have determined that all I want is an aptera for many reasons that I have convinced myself of. If gasoline use is destroying the planet (I feel it does) I hope to charge by full solar and nuke electric. Can’t wait to get it and go exploring.

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