Time is Aptera's Enemy.

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Time is Aptera's Enemy.

Aptera Community Aptera Discussions Time is Aptera's Enemy.

  • Time is Aptera's Enemy.

     robert engelhart updated 2 months ago 14 Members · 35 Posts
  • robert engelhart

    Member
    November 25, 2022 at 7:16 pm

    I would guess Aptera is burning thru 2-3 million a month right now. Salaries, benefits, taxes, building leases, equipment leases, supplier parts design and development costs, etc etc etc. Unless a huge investor comes in soon with 400-500 million how can they afford to hire 300-400 people plus get all the machines and parts/supplies in the factory to produce Aptera’s? They are no longer the value play, Chevy Bolt, 2023 Equinox, Nissan Leaf, 2023 Prius Prime, Kia Ev’s. All the above Ev’s are literally better choices for most people and several come with tax rebates. Fast forward 2 years from now and more and more affordable Ev’s will be on the market. Long story short the new 2023 Prius Prime is simply a stunning looking vehicle. Specs are not final but 60+ all electric, hopefully an AWD version, and about 35-37$.

  • John Trotter

    Moderator
    November 25, 2022 at 7:54 pm

    Robert. Aptera will have to compete on more than price. And it will never dominate the price range it needs to be in. However, the $30-35K range will have space for the 10,000 to 20,000 annual sales it will take for Aptera to be successful.

    • kerbe2705

      Member
      November 25, 2022 at 8:36 pm

      @John Trotter Both Chris and Steve have said they only expected about 3,000 reservations – so didn’t they set the initial pricing based on that number and not 10X that number? IMHO the 10-20K sales for success is probably right on the nose!

      Folks do seem to want to think of Aptera as a “less expensive EV option” but its appeal is far more than fiscal: It’s not going to meet every driver’s needs – but there are PLENTY of folks who buy two-seaters every year. The whole point of Aptera is efficiency: To use fewer battery cells and less electricity to go farther. In the end I think Aptera’s pricing will be in the same ballpark as other similarly-sized EVs – but you’ll get more for your money.

  • John Voules

    Member
    November 25, 2022 at 8:43 pm

    That is correct, the market place will soon be loaded with less expensive EVs. If APTERA is not in the market place in the next 18 months, we will loose sales. If APTERA’s factory is producing vehicles with in a year we hold on to and expand current sales reservations. We are not in direct competition with either of the vehicles that have been mentioned above. APTERA 1st of all is not an EV…it’s an SEV. Aside from sports car performance, nothing else looks like it. Let’s include nothing will be as inexpensive to run (this point needs to be hammered in). I’m not worried of the competition…..I’m worried about production.

  • BigSky Country

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 5:45 am

    I would agree with your premise that time is critical, but it does not seem to be the case at Aptera. Their strategy is to wait for full funding to “do it right,” which is a luxury very few start up companies ever get. I can only surmise that they are confident in their funding plan. As far as competition, They will have limited pricing power, but I don’t think that competition is with hybrids. The complexity of plug in hybrids which are “segway” vehicles to electric cars make less sense to commit to with the BEVs on the market and the future government direction.

  • Joshua Rosen

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 7:17 am

    Time narrows the appeal of the Aptera but it doesn’t eliminate demand altogether as it would for a conventional vehicle. Aptera’s efficiency is not likely to be matched by any competitor. While one would expect competing EVs to get a little more efficient than they are now nobody is likely to come close to Aptera’s. That’s because Aptera has had to make sacrifices to achieve their efficiency that the general public isn’t going to want, i.e. only two seats and only three wheels.

    Aptera had two short term advantages that grew out of it’s efficiency. The first, battery cost, has been completely negated by the Federal incentives as well as the state rebate policies. Aptera can’t compete on price because they start out with a $7500 disadvantage, when state policies are taken into account it could be a $10,000 disadvantage. The second feature that they get is range, nobody else can build a 600 mile car today. But the clock is ticking on this one. Batteries get better every year and so does the charging network. It’s safe to say that in five years nobody will be factoring in range into their purchase decision. EVs will reach range parity with ICEVs in just a few years, when that happens range is off the table.

    Solar will remain a differentiator. Solar cells can’t improve enough to make them practical on conventional cars. Unlike batteries which are far away from their limits, solar cells are pretty close to theirs. Solar is only useful in an ultra efficient vehicle, slapping them onto a conventional car does nothing.

    Efficiency for efficiency sake will have appeal to a segment of the market. Aside from the environmental benefits the running costs will be significantly lower. It costs half as much to fuel an Aptera as a Model 3. Obviously the difference with trucks is much greater but that doesn’t matter, people who buy trucks have never cared about fuel costs.

    Finally the design is radically different. Nothing looks remotely like an Aptera. Everything else on the is just some flavor of SUV and those all look the same.

  • Gerald Goodwin

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 7:52 am

    Time is very important and is all based on finance for Aptera’s success at this juncture. Finance options at this stage of the econmy and finacial markets are dicey to say the least. So it will likely require a billionaire or group of well healed investors to fill the gap. With so much uncertanty in the world today those smart money type of people are acting very carefully these days.

  • robert engelhart

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 9:28 am

    Nothing looks like the Aptera that’s 100% correct, thats the main reason I have it on order. But for me and I would guess many here it’s a toy/fun car. I don’t need an Aptera I want an Aptera. I don’t need the SRT crossfire in my garage I just want it. If they don’t start making them soon and at a reasonable price I will find something else I want. Thats what I see as the main problem for Aptera, soon the market will be flooded with Ev options.

    And the solar hype is cool I get it, but seriously does anyone here expect to get 40 miles per day solar!! Mine will live in a garage with an extension cord connected to the solar panels on my home solar array.

    • Krzysztof Rudzinski

      Member
      November 26, 2022 at 11:30 am

      @robert The Aptera is not designed to be a weekend toy, it’s the ev equivalent of a prius. One of Aptera’s biggest marketing mistakes has been that drag race they did with the beta vehicle. The Aptera is no sports vehicle, honestly it’s not even a sporty vehicle. Sure 0-60 is kind of quick, and yes it can complete the moose test but with a top speed of 110 mph it’s never going to impress in the quarter mile. Also any long spirited driving session will be straight up dangerous, with all three wheels hidden behind body structures designed to divert air when the brakes get hot, they will stay hot. Not to mention we still have little to no idea how well the Aptera’s motor/battery cooling systems will work because, from my understanding, they have yet to be installed into any of the prototypes shown thus far.

  • James Lee

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 11:47 am

    It’s not equal to Prius by any stretch of the imagination. As uncomfortable as it may be. You can put 4 people in a Prius.

    What the aptera is more equal to would be the new Bricklin EV or any other 2 seater.

    https://www.motorbiscuit.com/new-3-wheeled-electric-vehicle-is-the-next-subaru-from-malcolm-bricklin/

    However it’s more expensive than the bricklin.

    Time is indeed apteras biggest enemy, inflation, recession, lockdowns in China again, supply chain problems, shrinking real wages.

    The longer it takes to put vehicles in driveways, the more of a chance of failure.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  James Lee.
    • John Voules

      Member
      November 26, 2022 at 3:45 pm

      Bricklin EV 1st shown May 2017 at 26k and to be available for purchase in 2019. Never happened. Now again attempting to relaunch with a larger 80” wide vehicle and a price increase that was revealed precovid at $29,000-37k with a 275 mile range. Haven’t seen any that are being test driven or even one that has been hand built as an alpha.

      If it were to ever get made, I would expect the price to be at least $8-10k more. I’m sure it will be produced just after Elio releases their factory production vehicle.😏

      • J.P. Morere

        Member
        November 27, 2022 at 12:38 pm

        “I’m sure it will be produced just after Elio releases their factory production vehicle.😏” ROFLMAO!!! That’s too good to pass up, thanks for a great laugh. 🙂

  • James Wolf

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 1:17 pm

    None of us know what major investors that Aptera may be talking with. With that said, I assume there may be some major investors keeping an eye on Aptera. I am sure the word is out there in the investment arena.

  • Paul Schultz

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 4:22 pm

    It may get to the point that I cannot wait to replace my current vehicle with an Aptera. If they wait too long I may need to pursue something sooner so I continue to have a reliable commuter vehicle for my 130-mile daily round trip. I hope I can hold out… but it definitely could be a timing issue.

  • Jonah Jorgenson

    Member
    November 26, 2022 at 4:40 pm

    @robert englehart Agree. The burn rate is a killer at this point.

    Aptera had very low capital reserve to start with. Now, insufficient capital to fund production to get a revenue stream. Between a rock and a hard place. Need to keep some critical mass of staff but need to reduce burn rate. Have signed leases on buildings that are not needed until production. Probably have ordered vehicles components and paid for initial stock. Any investor that may be interested would want to see all of the cost cuting measures. Certainly more than have be implemented (In public view 18 terminations out of a staff of about 100+) at this point.

    Not disimular to Canoo and Faraday Future as they are in the same boat even with their preevious large capitalizations.

    All of this with a slew of low cost EVs comingg to market in 2023/4 as competition.

    In general, about 90% of startups fail. 10% of startups fail within the first year. Aptera has beat that statistic. Across all industries, startup failure rates seem to be close to the same. Failure is most common for startups during years two through five, with 70% falling into this category.

  • seth feldman

    Member
    November 27, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    Another solar competitor may be the edison future truck/vans that supposedly get 30+ miles per day. They would certainly have utility cargo/ people hauling advantages and I wouldn’t need a second vehicle for those duties.

    If Aptera raises prices while others get discounts/rebates, the efficiency cost savings starts to make less sense. Assuming my math is right (probably not). $7500 discount at $0.03/mile would pay for 250000 miles, or at $0.10/mi pays for 75000miles. That seems like a while to wait for lower operating cost of aptera to start saving you money.

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