Time is Aptera's Enemy.Posted by robert-engelhart on November 25, 2022 at 7:16 pm
I would guess Aptera is burning thru 2-3 million a month right now. Salaries, benefits, taxes, building leases, equipment leases, supplier parts design and development costs, etc etc etc. Unless a huge investor comes in soon with 400-500 million how can they afford to hire 300-400 people plus get all the machines and parts/supplies in the factory to produce Aptera’s? They are no longer the value play, Chevy Bolt, 2023 Equinox, Nissan Leaf, 2023 Prius Prime, Kia Ev’s. All the above Ev’s are literally better choices for most people and several come with tax rebates. Fast forward 2 years from now and more and more affordable Ev’s will be on the market. Long story short the new 2023 Prius Prime is simply a stunning looking vehicle. Specs are not final but 60+ all electric, hopefully an AWD version, and about 35-37$.
- This discussion was modified 1 year ago by robert engelhart.
ModeratorNovember 25, 2022 at 7:54 pm
Robert. Aptera will have to compete on more than price. And it will never dominate the price range it needs to be in. However, the $30-35K range will have space for the 10,000 to 20,000 annual sales it will take for Aptera to be successful.
MemberNovember 25, 2022 at 8:36 pm
@John Trotter Both Chris and Steve have said they only expected about 3,000 reservations – so didn’t they set the initial pricing based on that number and not 10X that number? IMHO the 10-20K sales for success is probably right on the nose!
Folks do seem to want to think of Aptera as a “less expensive EV option” but its appeal is far more than fiscal: It’s not going to meet every driver’s needs – but there are PLENTY of folks who buy two-seaters every year. The whole point of Aptera is efficiency: To use fewer battery cells and less electricity to go farther. In the end I think Aptera’s pricing will be in the same ballpark as other similarly-sized EVs – but you’ll get more for your money.
MemberNovember 25, 2022 at 8:43 pm
That is correct, the market place will soon be loaded with less expensive EVs. If APTERA is not in the market place in the next 18 months, we will loose sales. If APTERA’s factory is producing vehicles with in a year we hold on to and expand current sales reservations. We are not in direct competition with either of the vehicles that have been mentioned above. APTERA 1st of all is not an EV…it’s an SEV. Aside from sports car performance, nothing else looks like it. Let’s include nothing will be as inexpensive to run (this point needs to be hammered in). I’m not worried of the competition…..I’m worried about production.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 5:45 am
I would agree with your premise that time is critical, but it does not seem to be the case at Aptera. Their strategy is to wait for full funding to “do it right,” which is a luxury very few start up companies ever get. I can only surmise that they are confident in their funding plan. As far as competition, They will have limited pricing power, but I don’t think that competition is with hybrids. The complexity of plug in hybrids which are “segway” vehicles to electric cars make less sense to commit to with the BEVs on the market and the future government direction.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 7:17 am
Time narrows the appeal of the Aptera but it doesn’t eliminate demand altogether as it would for a conventional vehicle. Aptera’s efficiency is not likely to be matched by any competitor. While one would expect competing EVs to get a little more efficient than they are now nobody is likely to come close to Aptera’s. That’s because Aptera has had to make sacrifices to achieve their efficiency that the general public isn’t going to want, i.e. only two seats and only three wheels.
Aptera had two short term advantages that grew out of it’s efficiency. The first, battery cost, has been completely negated by the Federal incentives as well as the state rebate policies. Aptera can’t compete on price because they start out with a $7500 disadvantage, when state policies are taken into account it could be a $10,000 disadvantage. The second feature that they get is range, nobody else can build a 600 mile car today. But the clock is ticking on this one. Batteries get better every year and so does the charging network. It’s safe to say that in five years nobody will be factoring in range into their purchase decision. EVs will reach range parity with ICEVs in just a few years, when that happens range is off the table.
Solar will remain a differentiator. Solar cells can’t improve enough to make them practical on conventional cars. Unlike batteries which are far away from their limits, solar cells are pretty close to theirs. Solar is only useful in an ultra efficient vehicle, slapping them onto a conventional car does nothing.
Efficiency for efficiency sake will have appeal to a segment of the market. Aside from the environmental benefits the running costs will be significantly lower. It costs half as much to fuel an Aptera as a Model 3. Obviously the difference with trucks is much greater but that doesn’t matter, people who buy trucks have never cared about fuel costs.
Finally the design is radically different. Nothing looks remotely like an Aptera. Everything else on the is just some flavor of SUV and those all look the same.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 7:52 am
Time is very important and is all based on finance for Aptera’s success at this juncture. Finance options at this stage of the econmy and finacial markets are dicey to say the least. So it will likely require a billionaire or group of well healed investors to fill the gap. With so much uncertanty in the world today those smart money type of people are acting very carefully these days.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 9:28 am
Nothing looks like the Aptera that’s 100% correct, thats the main reason I have it on order. But for me and I would guess many here it’s a toy/fun car. I don’t need an Aptera I want an Aptera. I don’t need the SRT crossfire in my garage I just want it. If they don’t start making them soon and at a reasonable price I will find something else I want. Thats what I see as the main problem for Aptera, soon the market will be flooded with Ev options.
And the solar hype is cool I get it, but seriously does anyone here expect to get 40 miles per day solar!! Mine will live in a garage with an extension cord connected to the solar panels on my home solar array.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 11:30 am
@robert The Aptera is not designed to be a weekend toy, it’s the ev equivalent of a prius. One of Aptera’s biggest marketing mistakes has been that drag race they did with the beta vehicle. The Aptera is no sports vehicle, honestly it’s not even a sporty vehicle. Sure 0-60 is kind of quick, and yes it can complete the moose test but with a top speed of 110 mph it’s never going to impress in the quarter mile. Also any long spirited driving session will be straight up dangerous, with all three wheels hidden behind body structures designed to divert air when the brakes get hot, they will stay hot. Not to mention we still have little to no idea how well the Aptera’s motor/battery cooling systems will work because, from my understanding, they have yet to be installed into any of the prototypes shown thus far.
- This reply was modified 1 year ago by Krzysztof Rudzinski. Reason: Spelling
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 1:17 pm
None of us know what major investors that Aptera may be talking with. With that said, I assume there may be some major investors keeping an eye on Aptera. I am sure the word is out there in the investment arena.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 4:22 pm
It may get to the point that I cannot wait to replace my current vehicle with an Aptera. If they wait too long I may need to pursue something sooner so I continue to have a reliable commuter vehicle for my 130-mile daily round trip. I hope I can hold out… but it definitely could be a timing issue.
MemberNovember 26, 2022 at 4:40 pm
@robert englehart Agree. The burn rate is a killer at this point.
Aptera had very low capital reserve to start with. Now, insufficient capital to fund production to get a revenue stream. Between a rock and a hard place. Need to keep some critical mass of staff but need to reduce burn rate. Have signed leases on buildings that are not needed until production. Probably have ordered vehicles components and paid for initial stock. Any investor that may be interested would want to see all of the cost cuting measures. Certainly more than have be implemented (In public view 18 terminations out of a staff of about 100+) at this point.
Not disimular to Canoo and Faraday Future as they are in the same boat even with their preevious large capitalizations.
All of this with a slew of low cost EVs comingg to market in 2023/4 as competition.
In general, about 90% of startups fail. 10% of startups fail within the first year. Aptera has beat that statistic. Across all industries, startup failure rates seem to be close to the same. Failure is most common for startups during years two through five, with 70% falling into this category.
MemberNovember 27, 2022 at 3:38 pm
Another solar competitor may be the edison future truck/vans that supposedly get 30+ miles per day. They would certainly have utility cargo/ people hauling advantages and I wouldn’t need a second vehicle for those duties.
If Aptera raises prices while others get discounts/rebates, the efficiency cost savings starts to make less sense. Assuming my math is right (probably not). $7500 discount at $0.03/mile would pay for 250000 miles, or at $0.10/mi pays for 75000miles. That seems like a while to wait for lower operating cost of aptera to start saving you money.
MemberMarch 1, 2023 at 2:20 pm
Looks like we made it through the latest Tesla Investor Day event without them being ready to talk about their next gen vehicle.
Aptera is a totally different vehicle than Tesla will unveil. But I was getting worried about the price to functionality competition that might come from a Tesla that cost them 50% less to make.
Looking forward to my Aptera. Let’s go 🥳
MemberMarch 11, 2023 at 7:53 pm
I think timing is everything. Aptera may be missing theirs by all the delays. We have to remember other manufactors will not be sitting around doing nothing while aptera is trying to get theirs to market. My excitement is down a little since I ordered last year. I can’t see being able to get one before 2025 and there are some great cars coming out between now and then. By that time it may be just another fish in the pond?
MemberSeptember 4, 2023 at 5:01 am
The world is finally looking at solar seriously, and there’s plenty of 4-seat cars in development. Please get a bank loan to start production before you miss the boat.
The link below is of a bunch of college students already eating Aptera’s cake.
ModeratorSeptember 4, 2023 at 5:19 am
Like Aptera….Our future!🙏🏽👏🏻
MemberSeptember 4, 2023 at 8:11 am
There is a really long shot from an Australian solar competition car and a comercial mas production car and a lot of time and $. But what this proof is that it can be done for a 4 psenger 4 wheel car.
MemberSeptember 4, 2023 at 8:33 am
I’ve been more than superficially involved in solar racing since the late 1980’s and still build specialty solar panels for teams today. Solar racers are simply NOT comparable to Aptera.