Aptera resale value

[joshua-rosen]

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Yogi Berra

• This reply was modified 7 months, 2 weeks ago by  Joshua Rosen.

[bruce-mengler]

A limited edition Launch Edition Aptera will be worth more than a generic Aptera; but exactly how much more is totally indeterminate today (some where between $0.01 & infinity).

[Kamakiri]

I think the serialized Accelerator cars will carry a market premium over other early production Launch Editions. Before the reservation/production backlog is met, I could see that premium being in the $15k+ range to start and diminishing to say $3-5k over a similarly used Aptera in just a few year’s time. Because of the consumable nature of the battery, I don’t think of it being able to hold all of its early value without battery replacement past say the 10 year range. Inflation could make that completely incorrect, and perhaps in 2035, one could be worth over $50k. 🙃

[john-malcom]

Probably a better discussion to have after there is an Aptera in the market to become used. Certainly no basis at this point to base an estimate on. Purely speculation. dart board or gather dice equally valid.

[Kamakiri]

Better for whom? The OP asked this question recently, and discussing this after the Accelerator Program closed would be absolutely moot. Predicting market premiums is more art than science, but if you have no relevant experience with collectible or rare or serialized vehicles, then you wouldn’t understand.

[john-malcom]

Ha Ha! What is moot is hypothesizing a point value for the resale of a vehicle that is not built yet or in the market place. A vehicle that has no data for insurers to determine loss risk/expense as a part of establishing rates, or, a vehicle that has no data available for financing entities to establish depreciation or how much to loan for a financing activity and at what rate, or what lease terms are appropriate. All of the above performed by experts in their related field with significant variation.

The simple, and most appropriate answer is “It is too early to determine yet”

How about we wait until the vehicle is manufactured and delivered?

• This reply was modified 7 months ago by  John Malcom. Reason: added additional response

[Greek]

For those who speculate, it is too late to wait for APTERA to produce their vehicle. They would try to acquire a slot prior to production. It is mostly a supply and demand issue. Production in the beginning will be slow, once the vehicle is out in the public there will be those who simply must have it now. There will be people who will pay a premium to get their hands on an extremely different vehicle. These are people who want to show everyone that they have something exclusive and will pay up to have that exclusivity.

As far as determining how much they are willing to pay, depends on how early that vehicle will be available in that market and how many owners are willing or need to sell at that time. Most recently not that long ago, many used Teslas were being sold for more than you can buy a new one. The market has corrected since then. Smart Fortwo was not available in the US until 2008, but there was a company that was buying used ones from Europe 2003-04 and was federalizing them for the US market. Many in the L A area were buying them and were gladly paying close to $30k just to be exclusively seen in them. Remember this was 2005 money where 30k meant something. When US Smart cars became available in 2008 the market had leveled off and the price by 2010, they couldn’t give them away.

The numbers for the Aptera could be well above what has already been mentioned. Although there are some on this sight who cringe at the word speculation, aren’t all of us who invested in APTERA speculating?

• This reply was modified 7 months ago by  John Voules. Reason: Typing error

[john-malcom]

I am the speculation cringer. And actually I am not against speculation and in fact make money as a consultant speculating. I am definitely against speculating without a reaonable process and looking a couple of layers deep for some sort of data to support the conclusion using the process. In Greek’s speculation he lays down the basis for his reasoning and evolves it to his conclusion. Greek doesn’t present a point numerical result which is impossible if variance is taken into account. At best, only a range can be generated. So what is the motivation for speculating if there is no sound basis for it even by an expert in the field? It leads to misleading expectations. My opinion of course.

[Kamakiri]

If you actually read, my post does express the Anticipated premium in ranges.

Never mind. I’m gonna use the mute/block button.

[john-malcom]

Of course feel free to do so. You and I represent the opposite tails of the rigor distribution. There is room for both on the forum and the right for both to post here as the posts represent our respective opinions. Ground truth is somewhere in the middle. Hind sight is 20/20. We will know it sometime in the future.