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Aptera vs. Cybertruck: is Aptera the true future of transportation?
The ‘cybertruck’s most fitting description is it ‘looks like the future’ … what folks imagine the future to look like. Aptera earns the same type of reaction.
This sets the stage for the next narrative … which is the what is the future.
First the obvious: There is an established need for tough trucks. The cybertruck qualifies and is intrinsically more ‘efficient’ in design both of manufacture and product than the boxy competition. We saw the impact of ‘smooth lines’ in the ’80’s starting with the Audi and transitioning into the jelly bean Ford Taurus. The cybertruck will change truck-manufacturing, if, for no other reason, it negates the necessity of a paint shop. The use of highly-rust resistant steel and aluminum components, even for body panels simply cuts manufacturing pollution and costs.
Aptera is not a ‘tough truck’ … rather it is so efficient a package from its complete body safety-cell monocoque constructed from six carbon fiber enforced composite panels to its ability to ‘fuel’ itself from solar panels, all made possible by the air-slicing design that screams not only efficiency, but the future. It is about as close to free personal transportation for any distance in comfort as one can imagine.
Bottom line, both vehicles have a bright future … but which will define the future?
I think it may be decided on a couple of basis; one rather objective and the other subjective.
The objective criteria would initially go to the Cybertruck with its five-seats and cargo weight capacity. I mean Aptera can only transport what? five-hundred pounds combined passenger and cargo with no towing capacity. Aptera’s Achilles heel is weight but its redeeming quality is volume. That volume could be greater still if the rear hatch can be open during operation allowing a bulkier item. The point is that Aptera’s cargo volume, even with its paltry weight capacity, can potentially fulfill more than half the cargo transportation needed by typical urban/suburban families; powered by the sun 🙂
Logic would point out that a small hauler – I remember auto parts stores had a three-wheeled enclosed scooter vehicle to deliver parts around to mechanics – is a practical device and is likely to be among the first variants offered by Aptera. It will take a hit on efficiency at speed if it has an open bed, but given most use would be urban; that hit would be minimal.
The cybertruck’s other main claim is ‘comparative’ efficiency. Compared to other massive, three to five ton vehicles, it is; but there is no comparison to Aptera’s efficiency which is several orders of magnitude greater.
The objective criteria of which vehicle concept grasps the mantel of the future is how folks personally judge the balance of these factors between price, availability, efficiency and utility.
No one can predict the future. Climate change imperatives tell us simply that transportation has to change if we are to have even a chance at a sustainable future. I think the greater public – at least those who are not lost in some orange nightmare – grasp the inevitability of drastic change and, given the elegant designs of these two vehicles – Aptera and Cybertruck – from both innovative manufacturing and stylistic elements – offer a vision of the future. Both will be successful and both will be iconic in their own distinctive way.
But where the two differ, most dramatically, is in their cultural narratives. One is the product of a special child’s dream seen by his father who built the thing … using principles of efficiency but conforming to the expected mass for a vehicle to compete in the truck market.
Aptera’s vision goes back to the amazement that Aptera’s first models broke the calculations NASA had for calculating the co-efficiency of land vehicles by a bunch meaning … well, virtually free energy for transportation from solar cells on the vehicle. Yes, a wingless-bird flying on the ground with the greatest of ease.
There is more to the narrative of each brand though.
Musk is banning from owning a cybertruck for those who had an early reservation and sold them to competitors or others. He’s obviously pissed off these people had to the audacity to make money in a free-market and like others, who think their so special, decides to punish those who ‘cross them.’ His sales contract presumably prohibits the sale and contains a $50,000 penalty plus banning for those who sell their cybertruck before one year. You know, do unto others before they do unto you.
I definitely don’t get that kind of vibe from Aptera.
While this is not official by any stretch of the imagination – pure conjecture on my part – I think they would encourage Ford, GM, even Toyota and Nissan, to procure one of the first production vehicles from one of the first 2000 deliveries. Hell, they probably looked at the $250,000 Ford paid for a $120,000 cybertruck and joined the accelerator program for a paltry ten grand and unquestioned access. (Probably through a proxy; an executive at the company.)
Still, I don’t believe that Steve or Chris would be upset if an accelerator participant earned a tidy sum for their early delivery by someone wanting to take the thing apart. Hell, we know that Sandy Monro’s going to do it anyway and there really have been few secrets of how the Aptera comes together.
On this score, I think there is more hay to be made.
I think it is important to point out that Aptera is crowd funded and what ever actions in the market that benefit the ‘crowd’ ought to be considered.
I think it is fair to point out that Aptera’s business model, with is referral bonus program, already acknowledges this fact. Every deposit gained by referral benefits a previous reservation holder who provided the code to the tune of a thousand dollar discount.
This means simply the $70 potential refund for a reservation holder at the drop-dead time of buy, could have a greater market value than the $70 refund to someone who wants the vehicle ‘more.’
We know that reservation money is practically unavailable to Aptera for investment or use except when a particular vehicle is delivered. Indeed, whomever referred that person also gets a credit worth a grand at that drop dead moment … or not.
That inherent time-value aspect of a particular reservation increases in times of short supply. Markets are designed to manage supply and demand and how that is done could be another serious advantage that emphasizes the benefit to the crowd.
Recognizing the value of early reservations and allowing reservation holders to reassign their spot to another – for whatever reason – would add dramatically to the value of having a reservation. Requiring a late-comer to the party to place a reservation to get into the marketplace for early reservations for sale, would boost the number of potential buyers.
And yes, the crowd would benefit. What’s wrong with that … and it sure as hell contrasts favorable with the fines and banning actions of the only other contender for transportation for the future.
Reservations, highly defined and fungible, are a commodity just as furture contracts on rice or wheat which are bought and sold on the futures exchange every day.
The worst case scenario is if there is no demand in which case at the drop-dead date of buy or get a refund, the consumer is looking at the $70 refund (or $100 depending on Aptera policy) or executing the purchase. Maybe someone whose assessment of Aptera is a ‘no go’ will certainly come away a much happier camper if they get $200-500 in exchange for their sacrifice.
The whole purpose of a market, after all, is to manage supply and demand … and in this case the fallout that comes when a reservation holder sells their early delivery for a profit and is punished by the automaker.
IMO, the PR value of rewarding reservation holders would be immense.
- 18 Replies
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Aptera vs. Cybertruck: is Aptera the true future of transportation?
updated 1 month, 1 week ago 8 Members · 18 Replies -
No, hydrogen will be.
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Yeah, sure:
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FYI, Aptera can be driven with the hatch open per CM.
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Why would you want to increase the drag?
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I figured this out at about age ten when I’d stick my hand out the window and noted the vast difference in resistance when traveling in town and on the highway. I was a relatively strong boy but had a time holding my hand vertically on the highway at 70 mph but it felt like there was hardly any resistance in town.
Resistance increases with the square of the speed is the reason. It is Aptera’s low-weight that contributes most to its efficiency at speeds under 30mph/50km. There is a chart somewhere that projects Aptera’s range at slower speeds and rates the 400 mile version it somewhere over 500 mi at sustained slower speeds.
Conversion of the Aptera to a voluminous light-weight cargo carrier will have particular value in developing markets in world markets from Asia to Africa and other developing zones for two reasons. Ultimately, the purchase of parts/components will allow even smaller economies to open assembly facilities likely avoiding import taxes or at least a significant portion of said taxes. Secondly, governments in non-fossil fuel rich locations will use it wean themselves off the costly energy costs associated with imported oil and gas which will help their trade deficits.
But for most folks, who would carry bulky but comparatively light items like furniture (boxed or not) as they trek off to college, the combined efficiency and carrying capacity of the $26,000 Aptera with potentially no fuel costs makes it better future vehicle than the cybertruck.
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I agree. That’s why I reserved 3 Cyber and 3 Alteras years ago. Both are the future.
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4 APTERAS and one Telo for myself.
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Would you also agree that Aptera is the more sustainable future? Not that the cybertruck has no future, but its costs and resource commitment ought to make it a special tool for special tasks; not the dominant form of transportation.
Indeed, in a urban/suburban area its massive size and toughness actually increases the risk of death and injury of other drivers; simply because of the potential destructive energy in a three ton vehicle at 70 mph is several orders of magnitude than an Aptera at the same speed. The cybertruck would destroy ‘infrastructure’ when it smashes it. Of course so would a 9000 lb Hummer, F-150/250/350 and any number of massive SUVs both fossil fuel and electric.
I mean we know the explosion in SUVs and big trucks for personal transportation is largely a phenomenon with roots in the general level of fear that consumers feel … and think they feel more secure when surrounded by tons of rusting steel. I just find this expression of generalized fear self-defeating and ultimately unsustainable.
The answer to the future will be based on the success of the various narratives and of all the car companies in the world. Which will be the most inspiring? That will be the winner.
I think Aptera has a real shot at the mantle of the people’s car of the future because of its sustainability and projected long-life with improvements mostly to the components which presumably, like a computer case, can be upgraded with the latest and greatest componentry making each body a generational treasure.
I am very intrigued by the reservation marketplace idea. I can’t imagine there being a law or regulation that prohibits a reservation holder from transferring that reservation in a private transaction. I don’t recall any rule or stipulation in the reservation contract … which provided me with a place in line and the option to get a refund for my reservation if I choose not to buy when my time arrives.
I am a little concerned that my 2021 reservation is apparently being used for my accelerator place as I assumed the jump in line would not force my use of that reservation. I mean if it is a matter of fact, my several rounds of early investment each included a complimentary reservation that I didn’t exactly know how to redeem … and didn’t. But I’d pay for another one to use for the accelerator program if it came to that.
My concern is expressed only to note that, what with folks like Tesla, Ford, Ferrari etc. punishing customers – I’ll never buy one of their vehicles for this attitude toward the hands that feed them alone – simply points to an area where a clear consumer-oriented message like Aptera’s right to repair approach on subject of reservations would add to Aptera’s narrative.
To me it is like telling the world, take $70 out of your pocket and place a reservation and who knows, if demand exceeds supply, you make get a bonus down the road … you know … kind of like a bet.
New customers, those who want an Aptera now, can, with their ‘new’ reservation, gain entry into the marketplace where they can pay $200 or more for ‘immediate delivery’ from a don’t wanter reservation holder. Oh, and the worst case for the reservation holder … if there is no demand for their reservation … is they get their money back. That is the type of bet that you almost have to be stupid not to take.
I mean, we may be talking 4.6 million reservations instead of 46,000.
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by
George Hughes. Reason: added thought
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by
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Since I’m on a bit of a roll here, let me present suggest how the “Aptera’ reservation market would work for early adopters.
First, when I bring my accelerator Aptera back to Georgia – I’d be surprised if it is in 2024 btw – people are going to want one ‘right now.’
Under the present circumstance I can suggest they get in line and I think with 44,000 prior reservations in the queue, they’re looking at two years down the pike … shorter if more reservations result in a sale.
Those no-sales don’t earn the current referral agents their grand discounts suggesting the reservation refund to the no-sale reservation holder.
Now, with a reservation auction market, I could tell them to get a reservation just like everyone else using my referral which is exactly what I would do now.
The difference is that by holding a reservation, I gain access to the reservation market where current reservation holders can either execute their reservation (sale-same as now), request a refund (no sale-also the same as now) or exchange their reservation with a more timely (or less timely) production date by purchasing a timely reservation from a current reservation holder who wants to wait a month or even a year for delivery (the early holder could buy one on the market with a later delivery date but still sooner than being number 48,088 which may be the current slot available through a formal referral signup.
With a 46,000 (less the accelerators) unit backlog, at full production capacity in Carlsbad, you’re looking at a two-to-four year wait.
Because Aptera’s growth to provide enough assembly plants to meet the demand is likely to exceed supply of Aptera’s for the next four or five years at least.
In circumstances of shortages, it is a challenge to balance the needs of early adopters and new customers with minimal patience. If demand is as great as I think it will be, it is going to be a pain the butt to tell people the best they can expect is to find someone who will sell them their … but it ain’t me.
Still, there are more than a few who will jack up the price on their purchased Aptera creating the same kinds of problems, the only solution being the anti-consumer policy of punishing your customers for profiting.
This is a much more elegant way than that adopted by other car makers.
Let me add another point regarding the psychology of auctions (I was in a prior incarnation actioneer at auctionuniverse/auctions. com when it was owned by Classified Ventures of Times Mirror fame. It is the one that went belly up in 2001 in the Internet bust.)
When someone wants something in an auction, the incremental increases in price through bidding seems to justify that extra five dollar bid over the last.
This is actually a consumer friendly answer to the guy who might be tempted to drop 50-60,000 for an early edition just to have it now – desire makes people pay too much – would likely save thousands if not tens of thousands by purchasing a reservation due for delivery in a week or a month.
And you know what would really be cool would be if Aptera could apportion the $1000 referral due the person who ‘signed up the early reservation holder’ with the Aptera owner who referred the ‘winner’ of a reservation auction. Currently, the Aptera reservation holder credited with the referral either gets nothing or the full grand referral.
This kind of program would allow the substitution for what would normally be an Aptera refund with a sale with the original referral holder getting whatever the bidder offered whether it is $200 or $2000. The auction buyer would pay a ten percent premium, just like typical auctions, to compensate the auction site. Aptera, rather than refunding the reservation, fulfills the reservation for the assignee and apportions the $1000 referral between the original referrer and the person who referred the actual buyer; less, of course, an administrative fee.
All-in-All everyone from Aptera (which gets many more reservations and also a break on the referral fees for administration of the transaction) to the original reservation holder (however much more than the $70 invested in the reservation will someone pay for their place in line?), the original referrer who gets a significant referral fee less than thousand because they’re sharing that fee with the referrer of the actual buyer.) are all winners.
As I think through this the only legal impediment to this futures market is that if someone earns more than /$600 profit on the sale of a reservation, you might have to report that income to the IRS. But knowing the political clout of markets from the CBT to Wall Street, reporting may have a higher limit like $10,000.
Everyone knows that high demand and low supply creates incentives for corruption, price gouging and a host of anti-consumer actions (raising prices to quell demand, etc.) This proposed reservation futures market is not only pro-consumer in its fairness – it rewards early adopters and fans – but provides a transparent marketplace to counter the inevitable corruptions that accompany supply issues.
More than that, it provides a dramatic incentive for the placing reservations by prospective customers by adding an element of speculation to the proposition making it an infinitely better bet than buying 40 two dollar scratch-off lottery tickets. You know, the kind the states sell by the millions.
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I am a day one reservation holder of a cybertruck and have gotten the email to purchase one at 100k-120k. My original reservation was for a 40k rear wheel drive. I will wait to buy a cybertruck till I can get one under 50k.
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So, if Tesla had a futures market in which reservations are bought, sold and exchanged in a series of private transactions, Riley, you’d offer up your reservation to someone who would pay the $100,000+ for the thing for a premium over the cost of the reservation. They’d exercise your reservation but you would be able to purchase a reservation in the same ‘futures market’ when Tesla starts offering the $50,000 version.
This ‘futures’ marketplace makes even more sense when you figure that existing experience in reservations for new vehicles typically convert at from 5%-30% of the gross reservations convert to sales. (source Mike Mars post 3/18/24 in Aptera Delivery Schedule topic)
The reasons for such a small conversion rate, it was explained, is the difference in price <$40,000 announced vs. + $100,000 for early editions.); many customers made other plans and bought another vehicle, or even the guy died in an accident before the reservation came up or they cancelled the reservation and requested a refund.
What I note is that this is a whole lot of effort to get the reservation and even if, as Chris Anthony suggests, he expects an even higher than 30% conversion for Aptera. Still, even at 50% conversion naturally, that is a whole lot of wasted effort, refunds and lost rewards to those who have been ginning up placements.
By creating a way to transfer reservations, you create a way to commoditize the time-value of the reservations held by those who ‘opt-in’ to the marketplace. If Tesla had done so, Riley, you could have sold your Cybertruck reservation to Ford for $2,000 and they could have brought home their cybertruck without a penalty.
The point is, with every product in which demand exceeds supply, you’re going to have distribution problems that confound marketing decisions that result in Tesla punishing customers who ‘sell’ their vehicles ‘too quick’ while 50-60-70-90 percent of the reservation holders (and those who recruited them) walking away, somehow, disappointed.
Frankly, the whole thing could be funded by charging a fee not directly associated with the reservation deposit … an opt-in fee to offer your reservation in the marketplace that funds the marketplace.
By requiring those bidding for reservations with timely delivery dates to have not just cash, but a valid reservation listed in the marketplace to exchange, means that, unlike the Aptera itself, there are always plenty of reservations which, frankly, diminishes the value of even the most timely warrants. If half the reservations go unredeemed, that supply moderates the price of the reservations as unredeemed alternative reservations are plentiful.
I see such a reservation futures market as an advantage for the crowd that minimizes the distortions inherent when supply falls far short of demand, a circumstance that will likely last at least five years after initial launch.
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Have you any published books? Just curious.
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Nope, while I have a degree; I’m not the academic type. I’ve written volumes over five decades as a ‘creator’ … i.e. community journalist working in newspapers, radio, tv and even a stint on the hill in DC with a ‘press secretary’ title.
I was quoted once in a book … “The Perfect Store” … which was about the rise of eBay back in the day. I was “auctioneer@t@auctionuniverse.com/auctions.com when it was a classified ventures entity. I even had a column in the oldest continuously-published newspaper in the nation – the Hartford Courant.
My crowning achievement was blown to hell by FB … it was a exceedingly active hyperlocal community that gained national recognition in 2007 as one of the original 15 John S. and James L. Knight foundation ’21st Century Newschallenge’ winners for an online community called “Paulding.com” … It was a ‘ride’ as they say given my liberal EV sentiments plopped right in the middle of Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district. ( Yes, it was more than FB that ran me out of business.)
Basically, community journalism means you seek to be engaged and involved in all aspects of the community from government, transportation, economy both micro-macro-, crime, and everything else.
I remember one story from 1977 in western OK where an entrepreneur contracted with a Mexican company that made steel-faced foam panels which could be fashioned into a ‘steel’ building along the lines of a traditional home. Pre-insulated, the panels fit together on the long sides and were screwed into place for the ends; either into a another panel or to the poured concrete foundation. It remains a good idea IMO, kind of like Aptera 🙂
Bottom line, it was a career that to an amazing degree, let me go through life calling ’em as I see ’em. Yep, a blessing 🙂
- This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by
George Hughes.
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God bless you, brother.
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👍 That’s really cool!
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Always felt you were special George…probably the most out of the box thinker I have had a pleasure of reading.
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Thanks’ guys. Makes me kind of like Aptera – you know out of the box thinking.
And that’s why I like the reservation futures market. It gamifies the reservation system by allowing placement transfers in an online automated marketplace with customer-friendly rules that is a win-win. Kind of like “Right to Repair” …
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- This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by
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TL;DR
