BigSky
Forum Replies Created
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Interesting listening to obsolescence in the making isn’t it? I am wondering how Aptera would go about this. I had figured their approach was simply to provide everything needed, including how to information and it was up to us to find someone to do the work. There is always risk in recommending people unless you have a qualification program.
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Rich Rodriguez was overly optimistic in his prediction. The ATVM is on an indefinite hold. This is likely because the #1 criteria to get the loan is the probability the receiver can pay the loan back. There is still way too much risk Aptera won’t make it as an ongoing business. Chris indicated that the loan is for future expansion of additional sites beyond Carlsbad, which is a shift in their position. I believe the DOE is waiting for Aptera to overcome the big hurdles (ie, get through manufacturing, establish enough demand, etc.) before they will get that money.
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I think you are referring to the ATVM loan. After a long, quiet period, Chris was asked and surprisingly responded that this may come to fund future plants for expansion. I speculate that this meant the DOE was not going to grant them the money until they were a going business. The #1 consideration to get these loans is the probability to get the money back. I assume they felt Aptera is too much of a risk at this early stage.
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I am not a battery expert, but I have been swirling thought the potential benefits of Aptera using LFP despite the obvious weight drawbacks. I suspect space could also be an issue. But, I see a few significant benefits if the space issue could be overcome.
1). LFP can make better use of solar to safely solar charge to 100%. I would limit that feature to 80-85% on NMC.
2) LFP lasts a lot longer and better fits the million mile durability on key systems that Chris discusses as the forever car.
3) It is a cheaper tradeoff for Aptera with their cost and pricing concerns.
The ship has likely sailed on the battery chemistry, but it would be interesting to see a LFP variant in the future. I currently am seeking the 600 mile version because 400 would not meet my wants, but a 400 mile LFP might.
Thoughts?
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Great job by the Marketing department to let these guys disappear and put a comprehensive review together. They addressed a lot of important things for average consumers and brought a lot of credibility to the refinement of the vehicle. I think this will generate a lot of new interest.
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This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by Steven Montana.
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This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by
Gabriel Kemeny.
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This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by
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We will need to wait until final testing to be sure, but I am concerned the 40 – 60 KW charging speeds are going to provide a disappointing charging experience. I know there are cooling capacity concerns at play here, but I do think this needs to be on Aptera’s radar. Let’s be clear. No battery will hold the maximum charging speed throughout the charging session. Charging speeds slow down significantly as the battery charge increases. It is not uncommon for the average charge speed to be half of the peak. A 10-80% charging session is 28 KWh. If the Aptera averages a 4 mile per min charge rate (~25 KW), then it could take 70 minutes to complete. This would put the charging experience in the company of the Chevy Bolt, which is greatly panned for this reason. So, I really hope the company is giving the cooling system for charging speed some thought. Despite the car’s smaller battery, the charging will not be very good.
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I would love to see that happen! There are some cities with higher EV adoption rates like Boston that they could benefit from. The question is timing. I think California is still the most compelling location given their high adoption rate and benefit on HOV lanes. Once Deltas are produced, I believe there will be 10 of them, I think they can make use of them after testing across different parts of the country. The Pacific Northwest , DC, the Northeast hub between NYC and Boston, Colorado, and Phoenix could be focus area. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Aptera could use the community on the cheap to spread out. I’m retired, would be willing to take a Delta and do promotions for the company on the east coast while also being a Beta tester for them.
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While it may not feel fair, the relationship is symbiotic with the company. They need us to risk investments with them, so in return, they offer priority if you are willing to take the LE. It is not an entitlement for the rich. It is an enticement to get help. Personally, I would love to see people jump ahead of me as that means they are getting the help they need.
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Totally understand the anxiety this causes you. This company has been pretty transparent, but financials are kept close to the vest. I think they need to do that for a couple reasons. Startups are risky and full transparency would likely spook a lot of people. I am sure Steve and Chris have had plenty of sleepless nights that we will never know about, thankfully (we are passive investors after all). I also think they need to be careful on what they report since anything they say can come back to bite them if a situation changes. The best we can do is hang tight. It is still elusive to understand what funding they need to get started, but I do trust they are working hard to make that happen.
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I think it is great to be positive, but the charging actually won’t be all that great despite the car’s efficiency. I really hope the cooling system will go through continual improvement to allow faster charging. Not a Tesla fan, but using your analogy, the peak supercharger speeds are approximately 250 KW. If you assume a Tesla get 3.5 miles per KW, then the charge rate gets up to 14.6 miles per minute.
Aptera’s 50 KW peak charge rate at 10 miles per KW will gets only 8.3 miles per minute, nearly half of Tesla. At level 2 (6.6 KW) chargers, you would only get 1.1 miles per minute. Granted, a Tesla charging at that same speed would only get 0.39 miles per minute.
So the Tesla supercharger argument doesn’t hold up.
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Prices are not based on costs, but rather a customers willing to pay. The art in getting a new product to market is to make a compelling argument of value and get your costs in line to, hopefully, have an attractive gross margin to justify going forward. As you allude, costs should come down over time due to multiple factors such as scale, technical advancements, etc. But, under most circumstances reducing costs internally does not impact a customer’s willingness to pay. Usually, it helps gross margin, especially if a company needs to launch below their targets.
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I believe they were expecting to hear something last month.
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I speculate that they might be playing around with them freeform, but they won’t actually program the tracks for a few reasons until the first shells show up from CPC. I don’t think there will be too much in getting it set up given the preassembly approach. They have a bunch of work to do on the battery yet, which will command a lot of floor space.
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I have been thinking about the argument that the fast charging at 50 KW will be faster given the efficiency of the vehicle. I know there will be cooling challenges on this vehicle, but theoretical minimum charge time on the LE from 10 to 90% will be 38.4 minutes. Depending on how long the peak charge rate can be maintained, it is more likely it will take more like an hour to charge. I think it would be important somewhere along the journey to determine what needs to be true to enable that charge time to be less than 20 minutes. We were all pretty vocal when DC fast charging was out of the LE and the company’s response was awesome. With the message on how important this feature is, I hope there is already work going into figuring out how to speed that up.
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He has been pretty involved, but he isn’t a salesperson. So, he makes appearances and shows his support, but his communication isn’t polished. I think they are using him to the extent he is the most help.
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I have 2 reservations on my account. Just go order it and your second car will get a new reservation number for the new car and it will not impact your first reservation. I am basically doing the same thing, but I am waiting for a 600 mile.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by Steven Montana.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by
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I totally understand how that benefits you, but it doesn’t do anything to incentivize you to further invest which is what the program is designed to do. Why would they want to give a LE reservation to someone who invests $400 in a WeFunder round? They need you to pony up at least $10k now, not give away reservations for nothing.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by Steven Montana.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by Gabriel Kemeny.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by
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I think your idea is really interesting although I think it would be a distraction for Aptera to action any customization. It would be an excellent exercise for their Marketing department to create this aura under certain numbers to entice interested Accelerators to try to get certain numbers for their own customization. Lucky 7, Jackpot 888, “the millennium,” the dark side 666, pick a year for the dark ages, etc. the sky is the limit. If I really wanted 666, I might try to adjust my investment to get it planning my own customization at story I want to tell with it. It would cost Aptera nothing to have a little fun here to inspire people to try to get certain numbers. I think you havea good idea here.
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I think solar panels are the one area they are fairly ready on.
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Not sure this video fully answers the question. Obviously, they won’t be ready to even start until the end of the year at the earliest. They have 2 major hurdles to overcome; working capital and technical. The working capital is the major one. The more money they can raise, the more they will be able to spend on COGS. SoI don’t think they can even answer the question until they have signed loans or investments. The technical one is easier as they shake down the line to ramp up. I have been a little confused with Chris’ terminology regarding 40 vehicles per day right away, but I think I have a better idea from this video. I think he means they will be designed for 40 vehicles per day from a capital and staffing standpoint. I think that is fine if they have the money. If they don’t, then it behooves them to get into slow production to reduce the future investment risk. Many would loan them money if the cars are on the road.
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I agree on most of your points. My intention for the vehicle is a road tripper. Around home, I am actually thinking I would rarely need to charge it, and most of the time there is free L2 laying around. My concern will be long charge times in remote locations. I just don’t want to have to sit around for the better part of an hour just to charge a small battery. I can live with 100 KW getting me in the 20-30 min range.
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Nice add. My extrapolation was more simplistic and yours is better. There are a lot of big ifs, and the small battery size will be a benefit for sure. I would hope to do better than 42 minutes on a small battery. I ordered a 600 and I would hate to sit a long time at remote charging stations.
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My logic for the average 25 KW average was laid out based on other vehicles’ charging curve dropping off over time.
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Given the varying levels of complexity to individual submissions, it would be hard for anyone outside the department to shed meaningful light on those stats. My understanding was they were expecting to get an indication last month. The primary driver to getting the loans lies in the probability they will get paid back. So, it would not be a good sign if it drags on a long time.
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At 70mph, I am not sure you will actually get 210 miles out of a 25KWH battery. On your specification of use, 40 is probably better. Let’s see what the real range turns out to be, but I would carefully look into the results for highway speeds before locking in on that battery size. You may find yourself needing to charge during those trips.